NFL Draftkings Showdown - Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins TNF Odds Analysis and Leverage 2025

Alright we are close enough to lock to where we can get some real insights on how to approach the showdown slate for Thursday night football.

Expectations vs Salary

I pulled the bandaid off this week and going with the 2 game sample size to produce this chart. Josh Allen is way above the field on expectations, so it is no wonder he projects so high. Seems you need to still lock him in your lineup somewhere, unless you believe he scores 0-1 tds today while everyone else scores (or some low chance injury). That leaves a few other names above the value/trend line, with the cheapest play being Tanner Connor, who seems to have some ownership there. Alec Ingold and Ty Johnson are both capable of stealing a td for cheap as well if darts are needed.

Vegas Prediction

I have the game showing that it could be a 37-17 blowout by Buffalo at home, and I think this is the general consensus. Thursday night games tend to be a letdown for at least one team so high chance its the team traveling on short week. That does leave room for at least 1 or 2 touchdowns by Miami that we still would want to capture- especially if no one else is on that play.

Defense vs Receivers

Miami seems to show some promise around WR2 or WR3, except Waddle isnt healthy. Buffalo has shut down WR1 for te most part but Tyreek is different when he wants to be. I will likely take Malik first of the 3.

Buffalo seems to be open to anyone working out, but Cook and Kincaid are the ideal spots.

Buffalo Stacks

If you can get to Allen its ok, but you will have to get to a big dart. Cook looks better at captain as of right now for leverage. He has scored like 3 tds in 2 games as well so that may be the starting point if this holds up. Coleman, Prater and Kincaid bring in the most leverage from there. Ray, Ty and Knox all carry that potential for a random touchdown though as well.

Miami Stacks

This feels a bit like the Atlanta game where most people ignored the idea of the underdog panning out and scoring points. Achane is showing as a high leverage captain play, along with Tua, in a passing game script, with sub 5% projection on his ownership. That makes things interesting IMO. Last year in Buffalo, he went 25-28 passing while his team put up 27 points on the road.

He didnt do a whole lot but that passer rating is elite so I will consider one lineup with him. The pairing pieces would be Malik, Patterson, and then Tanner Connor I suppose, all very thin plays but lots of leverage that affords the ability to take one extra chalk piece elsewhere.

Showdown optimal

This looks like a cash game build to me, if Waddle is a full participant. Knox and Hawes are thin enough to swap out.

Good luck!