NFL Odds and Leverage - Draftkings Main Slate - Week 1 Sept 2023

It has been a while since I have broken down some NFL content so this is quite exciting. My breakdown is quite unique and as always, focuses on different angles that you might want to use to take on a gpp. With week 1, I'm relying on 2022 data to make any sort of decision and therefore keep in mind that around week 4 is when we start getting a stronger read on what teams are doing.

Updated!

Ceilings

Update: I circled the guys who have the highest ceiling for their position. You may be able to associate some plays like Burrow to Chase or Cousins to Hockenson to really begin your stacks this week.

Just getting an overview of how things lay out, based on workloads and salary here. Hurts appears to have the highest ceiling on the slate. Quarterbacks typically will have that title but we will break this into positional data to get a bit closer. Note that rookies will not necessarily show up this year because we have no idea their workload in week 1.

Vegas Projections

I try and project my own vegas totals in order to compare to vegas totals throughout the year. Again, last years data involved and that doesnt include team changes in the offseason. Highest projected game for me is LAC vs MIA, although my total is slightly under the vegas total. Green Bay vs Chicago is well above the expected total, except GB does not have Rodgers, Watson and possibly Doubs either. That leads me to Indianapolis vs Jacksonville, who may go underowned.

QBs

We have to decide whether or not to pay up or pay down at QB. Ownership doesnt look crazy on any specific player so paying up isnt out of the question. Paying down - Ridder appears to be the top value QB if going that route. The guy in the most limbo would be Fields, who appears over priced but also underowned.

When looking at the QB situations:

Things have changed, but if pulling from last year's situations, Geno may have one of the best situations today if the Rams defense has not improved. Burrow is next up, higher usage and also in a good spot if his legs work. The more important thing to look at may be the weapons in which they are able to pass to.

RB

Eckler may be the top play on th slate, and also top owned. The LAC/MIA game is expected to produce the most points and he has been high usage. There are other RBs for cheaper who have had high volume last year for their price - mostly in the 5K range. Mixon seems to be in no mans land at 9%.

RB situations

Interestingly, Baltmore, Arizona, and Denver have some potential to rush successfully. Im a bit confused by Arizona's mark here but ehhh thats what came up. Javonte Williams is likely the most intruiging to me on this list vs the scatter plot.

WRs

Its pretty clear that we as a whole are paying up for WRs as thats where all the ownershp is. No one projected over 20% so I dont mind it. The Chiefs showed the importance of having players who actually catch the ball so that is the sentiment week 1. If you play anyone else, you likely will get lower ownership.

WR Situations (DVOA)

Unfortunately I didnt get a chance to sync up the names to the position as I normally do. Normally finding the funnel situations is also nice, like WR2 vs Rams. Is that going to be Lockett or Metcalf? I never quite get them right, but that makes Geno's case interesting, especially if you play them both. There may be a funnel to Higgins (WR2) as well, and a WR2 from the Rams.

TE

How about TJ Hockenson? Top expectations on the slate and single digit ownership as Jefferson picks up the ownership. Kyle Pitts also not getting any ownership despite Ridder being a cheap value.

Oline vs Dline

Projections

Most intruiging Leverage

Good luck!