NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Main Slate Week 5 - Oct 2023

I'm having severe laptop issues but I was able to get enough done to make this post today. It will be brief but hopefully detailed enough to give you some insights of use this week!

Updated: 10:15 am CST

Ceiling Finder

Interestingly enough, Kamara is back and on a limited sample size, he shows the highest ceiling on the slate based on the workload he has seen thus far. Otherwise I see Kyren, Hurts and then maybe Kirk Cousins as the next 3 that make a bit of since. I'm skipping over Puka because I believe Kupp returns this week.

Summary of Situations

I will reference back to this as I go position by position. These are situations I try to look at when making decisions that are otherwise baked into the projections for the most part. Sometimes projections just dont give enough credit though for the situations and so its good to look. There are 3 team totals which are hitting over 26 pts, but lets see how things look elsewhere:

Vegas Totals vs My Totals

Its not always about who is projected to have the most points. Sometimes seeing a team projecting to go over their total makes them worthwhile to target (if the projection is right, unlike Thursdays game). Column I is the implied team total and column P is the projected team total. Some teams will be overprojected due to mismatches in the 4 week sample but you may find some that are not. If someone can tell me why the Broncos vs Jets game is projecting so many points.. that one makes no sense but I dont have an answer for that just yet. Maybe in part due to the amount of points the Broncos gave up to the dolphins. Either way, I now have to look at both teams in offense for possible points after looking at the Dolphins key players vs the Giants.

Game Scripts

Some teams are good at doing one thing vs the other and so finding the funnels and pace of play may be helpful to identifying the situations you want to target. Pats vs Saints looks like it could have a bit of play volume involved so that is interesting. Houston vs Atlanta looks to favor the passing game, granted there is a slight pace disadvantage for Houston.

QBs

The actual top QB situation on the slate is Hurts per his workload. He should have an opportunity to blow up as well, seeing that he hasnt reached his ceiling in points yet. The matchup will matter though. Next we have an intruiging Cousins showing as leverage over Mahomes at half the ownership and more value. I'm interested in that now that I see that. Lamar is going underowned and leveragy for the 2nd week in a row. Then finally we have Matt Stafford getting Kupp back and hes also leverage over Tua/Hurts/Mahomes when saving money. Kirk usage has been the top overall per my calculations as well.

RBs

We talked about Kamara as he has such a high ceiling thanks to his work. I tend to rely on usage and weak run defenses to get where I want to go here. Minnesota has the top situation for RBs as well so that is odd, but Mattison is coming in 10% owned, and I suppose that is based on the chiefs not getting ahead early, etc.

WRs

This workload chart is based on the previous 4 weeks of work and therefore it doesnt guarantee that to stay the same - for guys like Puka. He is going lower owned though and that makes him intruiging if Kupp is limited or receiving extra attention this week. Robert Woods is on the cheap side of things getting extra work, while Olave is sitting in the middle by himself at almost no ownership. He hurt a lot of folks last week including me.

Lets peek at how the defense vs receivers chart favors these guys below though to align these guys.

TEs

Kelce is getting extra attention this week, but honestly i'm not so hot on the KC (Pat to Kelce) stack when its popular like this. 2 Pivits exist here, Hockenson and Ertz at similar workloads but lesser price. Waller also going unowned for the most part.

Defense vs Receivers

Bijan and Joe Mixon are high usage RBs who are intruiging if they catch passes from the backfield today. Also noting that I didnt realize Denver defense was so bad until now. Unfortunately bad across the board so its difficult to trust any one WR to go off. If we knew who the WR2 was for KC, that would be an intruiging spot as a runback or Chiefs stack pivot off Kelce.

Projections

On the left we have Fanduel based projections and on the right, we have DK based projections. Some of the data points need some updating but I did want to get this posted for now, in case my laptop dies. Keep in mind Puka being at the top is likely a case where we can replace Kupp, but only time will tell. Jonathan Taylor is back and therefore I'm disregarding Moss as an anomoly. Otherwise Dolphins, Colts, Lions, and Patriots may be my top defenses I target. Will see you all Sunday!

********************Adding Showdown Below********************************************

This is specific to the Dallas vs San Francisco Showdown on Sunday Night Football.

Expectations vs Situations

CMC has been on a tear with his workload and results. He has the highest upside, salary and ownership which will make him interesting as to flex or captain him or fade him (if you are expecting an injury or something). We start seeing some leverage once we get down to Deebo and Brock. Jake Ferguson may be a Dallas value, but for the cheap guys, we have 4 names to review: Vaughn, Turpin, Tolbert and Luke. Those guys may get you 5 pts in a jam em in situation if you want that approach.

Vegas

It would seem that the o/u is set well. However if there is anything to see here, it is the fact that Dallas could cover. If they don't come out and do something stupid like they always do, then maybe there is merit to stacking that side of the ball today for leverage. SF otherwise looks like they should win this.

Defense vs Receivers

Dallas defense has been sharp so there are no real holes. However Deebo still has the best chance of success here, so his leverage makes sense to me. SF has a hole in the WR3 spot. Targets indicate Cooks might be that person but you may want to make a judgement call there.

When Dal has the ball:

I'm not really feeling these options in the captain side of the game. You could get to Dak and hope he runs for something but its not that much leverage involved. Dak with Ferguson and Cooks looks to possibly have some leverage as a stack though.

When SF has the ball:

Absolutely no leverage in capt for CMC, but Brock actually has some appeal in the captain spot with his top 3 pass catchers potentially in the flex.

Update: Purdy, Aiyuck and Kittle have the best capt leverage tonight rn

Kyele and Ray-Ray would be biggest dart plays.