NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Monday Night Football -SF vs Minn Oct 2023

Getting a quick push on data since we are down to the wire with time.

Updated: 6:56pm CST

Expectations vs Salary

CMC is a heck of a threat to be the top scorer on any slate he is in. Interestingly enough, Kirk is close. How so? This chart measure what Kirk has done from a workload level. His work hasnt produced points but one day it will. Is this the day? (Probably not but its worth the dart for me :D )

Mattison workload is way high for the price and on the cheap end, we have 3 RBs (Kyle, Ty, Cam) and TE Oliver who sit above the trend line. Maybe one of thos low end darts end up in a good spot tonight.

Kittle, Aiyuck and Mattison all carry the ability to bring leverage to your lineup.

Odds are favoring SF and ownership just hasnt caught up to it. Not to say that Minn cant shock out here. RBs, WRs and DST are all positions of interest tonight imo, with TE and QB both going a lil overowned.

Fanduel

Interestingly Kirk has a higher upside to his workload than CMC on fanduel. Its the difference in scoring systems that favors QBs really, but feel free to take a chance, as no one is giving Kirk a chance at captain on that site. The setup is different there, where upside matters for MVP more than salary, so YOLO.

Vegas

Game total is 45.5 and my total is in alignment with that total. It doesnt take into account the injuries or weather. Infact, someone sent me this graphic today showing previous scores from SF games in Minnesota:

If you average those scores, Minnesota typically whoops SF by scores similar to 28-14. While I dont see how that happens tonight, it is something to keep in mind with Vegas projections. That is, if a team underperforms, it is likely a TD swing each direction.

Game Script:

Minnesota is not very good at rushing. However SF has not been great at stopping the run either. They are great against the pass though, ranking 2nd.

SF is great at rushing against an average run defense and then surprisingly they rank 1st in passing somehow. So I believe SF can do what they want, minus Deebo being out.

Defense vs Position

There is a bit of an opportunity for the backup WRs in SF, outside of Deebo being out. WR2 and WR3 tend to do well and that in itself is contrarian, as Aiyuck is the typical benefactor that most should flock to. The passing situation is not looking good for Kirk so Mattison looks a lil stronger than before.

When Minnesota has the ball:

Update: TJ has some captain leverage on DK now. SF is good against TEs so I may not take that chance.

It appears that Mattison captain is intruiging today if choosing a captain from this side of the game. Mattison and Kirk both have high usage and that leaves them in play, granted Kirk's situation and leverage scores are really low.

When SF has the ball:

Brock has leverage at captain and that makes things interesting, since he is a bit low usage, in comparison to CMC. Any high usage play is viable for captain even without leverage, but in those cases, I highly encourage finding high flex pieces to accompany them. Bell and Juszcyk look like they are high leverage, if playing CMC captain.