NFL Showdown / MNF Slates -Houston/Tampa Bay and Las Vegas/LA Chargers Week 2 Matchups 2025

The games have a two game slate but I usually don't play the two game as opposed to showdown. I will still try and deliver a bit towards both as I can, starting with the first showdown.

HOU vs TB Workload Expectations

Workload wise after 1 week, Baker's workload exceeded the field by a bit with CJ Stroud showing as next in line from a value perspective. The issue here in week 2 is that the game script may have called for more passing in just 1 week than usual for these teams in one game. However we can only work from what we know. I see Otton quite high in opportunity after showing me a 0 in last week's lineup so thats interesting. White, Tucker and Miller all on the cheap end, with Harrison Brown.

Vegas Proj

I'm showing that this could be a close game, meaning the underdog should be taken more seriously like last night's game. That aims me at Tampa as the team to find value from.

DVP

This chart is still on 2024, but WR2 for Tampa seems to be the weak spot. The rookie did well last week and landed in the winning milli maker, although I caution against expecting players to have back to back good weeks. Houston shows Chubb and Stover (TE) as viable

Stacks for Houston

The early indication is that Nico is going to be the top owned and top captain option for Houston stacks. There is a long list of players who might do well with him, including Chubb, Schultz and Fairbairn the most. Deeper punts to me would be Justin Watson (former Chief who used to get the deep passes occasionally) and Bryant as the deep dart TE in case he falls into the endzone for 200. He has had big games with Cleveland in the past but he is still a backup.

Stacks for Tampa

The options are a bit more consolidated. Egbuka or Baker could end up being top candidate for captain. Then the Kicker shows high leverage in the flex, with Otton and the Bucs Defense IF you wanna go against the grain. Choosing from either Evans, Shepard, Miller or long shot Tez would otherwise lead to extra leverage. I personally am not wanting to take a rookie captain but will see if that changes later in ownership updates.

Optimal

Interestingly this came out with a closer split (3-3 lineup and Baker captain). I'm tempted to take away a Houston player and add in someone to make a 4-2 stack here on the surface, if hoping the projections are good this game, but as you may have noticed they may be inflated on a 1 week sample.

Two Game Slate Expectations

When looking at the top of the board, I see Baker is still atop of the workload in week 1. Some guys are super low but that could indicate they were taken out of the game last week in their matchups (maybe Nico was?) so I dont trust the value as much as the guys who might turn into the sqeaky wheel. With Baker showing the lowest ownership projection, Id trust him to be my QB if starting a lineup.

Offensive vs Defensive Lines

The Chargers appear to have the best pass protection expectations going into this slate so Herbert may be popular on that alone. Tampa is the only team that seems to have the better overall line though, with Houston potentially having the worse protection based on my algorithm. Lets hope that points to Tampa as our defense as well.

Defense vs Receivers

Disregard the names for now but maybe pay attention to the situations. Houston seems to filter out WR2 and WR3, but Chubb/TE/Nico all look to be in position to do well if Stroud has time to pass. WR2 for LV and LAC look like strong plays, but that could be Keenan or McConkey really, depending on who is going to run slot routes as that is the weak spot for LV.

Top Plays Per Position

Take projections with a grain of salt. I think Herbert Mayfield and Smith all project the top, but if you can get Mayfield at half the ownership, its worth the shot IMO. That is assuming the ownership projection is also accurate.

Top Leverage Plays (top to bottom)

This list of plays are all showing me a sign of leverage against the field. Pierce may be leverage but also very low projection so keep that in mind when choosing.

LAC vs LV Showdown Expectations

Keenan Allen is atop of this chart which is interesting. I know he went off vs the Chiefs last week and that has something to do with his workload. 10 targets to him, 9 to Ladd. Brock, Geno, Meyers, and Ladd are floating beneath Allen for more money. On the cheap and lower owned end, Dissly and maybe Meyer are out there, but Conklin is also a cheap te getting single digit projected ownership so that is interesting if we think the others bust.

LAC Stack Options

The issue with LAC is that Herbert is 20% owned at the captain spot, which is a lot. Keenan is a good option and is stackable in the flex at a bit of positive leverage. Then the kicker and Chargers DST sorta round that out for positive leverage spots.

LV Stack Options

For half the ownership of Herbert, you have Geno Smith or Ashton Jentry showing as captain leverage, and Meyers as positive flex leverage. Dan Carlson (K) is then the 3rd option, but it gets really dicey after that. Maybe Donte Thorton or Tre Tucker may work in that situation for bonus leverage.

Optimal Lineup

Will put this in double ups in case Herbert does the expected big game, but will recommend swapping at least 2 names out of this if playing it.

GL!