NFL Showdown - Odds, Leverage and Analysis of the Eagles vs Cowboys 2025 Season Opener

We are back and I can't wait to start incorporating some of the things I learned over the past year into NFL. I believe there are many ways to approach these slates and some methodology has been close but not quite hitting the mark. With playing all year around in other sports (PGA, UFC, Nascar, etc) I have found different approaches that might actually be useful for these posts going forward. The dilemma is that this year (just like last year and the year before), some of the data providers I use to make my charts decided to remove very key data points that drove my old process. I have spent weeks trying to figure out how to recover what I would do when projecting defenses now that PFF removed some of their old charts. Therefore this year may start with some adjustment period but I will start week 1 using last year's data points and then work into 2025 after a couple weeks in.

Ownership updated!

Odds vs 2024 Expectations

--- only dart active down there is Kylen Granson fyi!

Week 1 showdown isn't for the weak. I mean, we have to make some assumptions now that players have swapped teams (aka Pickens). We have to project based on defenses that may have changed last year as well as based on players coming back from injuries. Nonetheless, Pickens goes from WR1 in Pittsburg to WR2 in Dallas, as DaVonta Smith remains a WR2 with good numbers / smaller workload in his final several games in comparison to Dak and Pickens. Meanwhile Lamb goes from being the only option to sharing with Pickens in a new system. Lets not forget about Javonte Williams now becoming the RB1 just a month ago. Whats the worst that can happen there?

Even the darts might be misinterpreted thanks to the arrival of Pickens. We will have to see more about where the team weaknesses have been in order to feel good about the workload charts this week.

Vegas Projections

So one key difference going into this year is that I am measuring defensive pressure with less data than I had last year (thanks to PFF sucking!). That typically factors into how I project the scores but that is not quite baked into this one. I have the game going over its implied total based on last year's stats. When I dive in just a tad bit closer, I see that Philadelphia should actually have some issue pass blocking if Dallas didnt trade away their best blocker. On the other side, I show some slight advantages to Philadelphia defense - who project slightly higher. It makes me want to play a defense but I do not quite know the impact of the Dallas lost starter as it pertains to getting pressure on Hurts. If they do get pressure, passes are likely to go shorter than usual for Hurts.

Defense vs Receivers

Last year Philadelphia let up to the WR1 spot while locking up the WR2 spot and everything else. That helps Ceedee look like the play assuming the Philadelphia defense remains the same. On the opposite side, everything but the WR1 for Dallas should find holes in the defense. That may explain why Smith is projecting lots of points in relation to AJ Brown (automatic calculation there). FWIW I like AJ Brown quite a bit for the year long, but not quite prepared to sell out on that play today.

Dallas Stacks

So when I look at what Dallas has to offer with what we know, breaking down leverage between capt and flex spots, I do not feel comfortable with any of these. Could make a case for Ceedee at best but know that you wont find leverage in the captain per se. He is the top usage that we know, so that is the one reason i would consider it along with what we saw in the DVP for WRs. In the flex though, I see Ferguson as the top leverage for flex. Could make a case for Williams in the flex too, or maybe reach for the Dallas DST with Williams if you think they truly get to Hurts.

update: still rough at captain, but at least it looks consolidated to Dak or Ceedee if doing it, which means Ceedee to me.

Philly Stacks

Barkley looks like he is leverage in the captain spot surprisingly, but you would also be able to get leverage on pretty much any Philly star at captain based on current showing. That is problematic for stacking 4 from Philly as then you would need to look at Goedert and Elliot and maybe Eagles DST for flex leverage. Some deep darts like Grant Calcatera or Granson are also there if you want a large field gpp look at things.

Optimized Projections

This is just simply showing the optimized version of my projection based on last year's data. I sorta like the idea of that double defense so I will play it or some variation of it for dirt cheap, just to see how it does. Another variation was a 5-1 philly stack but it was super negative on the ROI - and I trashed it.

Maybe more to come. Sorry its so late but I am struggling to get the data in a good place to start this season. Working on it daily til I get it though!