NFL Week 10 - Showdown (Broncos vs Raiders) and Main Slate Analysis, Sims and Insights Nov 2025

Opening thoughts: Many people will assume that 150 entries in a tournament means you are more likely to win. That is partially accurate. You can add 150 lineups into a pool and have 149 more chances than 1 entry.. but that doesn't mean you will win money. If 1 entry of 150 min cash, you actually lose 150 times more in the process. Do that a few times and you end up broke.

No one should attempt to max enter a contest without establishing a solid core to your lineup. The size of the core is debatable, but I believe you should build around a concept or at least 2 players that you believe have a high enough floor to not kill you, but a high enough ceiling that you have a shot to win. I also believe you should have at least 2 pivots in any entry away from the build. This writeup will try and identify players on both sides a bit more than usual, starting with the showdown and later to the main slate.

As usual, I am starting the week with the upcoming slate's charts up top and will continue to grow the page - or on an X thread for quick updates, so follow both! And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.

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Looking over the past 3 weeks of games, its tight at the top with Hurts/Jacobs and Love all getting similar usage. Doubs and Devonta havent been too far below a,d then we see Barkley and AJ just below the value line. Feels like that makes a jam em in type build possible, with a cheaper captain. There are some darts showing as well on the bottom left so we will keep them in mind in case a top play is needed like Hurts or Love capt.

Redzone equity

I am looking for the best players in redzone usage next to those who score well in my system. Goedert, Brown, Smith, and Doubs are the top expectations. The Packers are expected to win this game although I think Philly could potentially cover the spread as road dogs, which would bring some value to stacking that side of the ball. Jordan Love looks better equipped for passing success in this game.

Defense vs Recievers

Philadelphia seems to filter to the RB, meaning Jacobs or his backup could see success in screen passes. I also see a filter to the deep ball so its worth noting the WR2 is in a good spot, if we can determine which WR gets the most deep shots. It seems that the pass protection is expected to be there moreso for Love as well. The Green Bay side isn't too intimidating on defense, but WR2 and WR3 look to be the most interesting.

Green Bay Stacks

Looking at the stacks here, there are 3 names taking all the projection equity at the top, where all 3 having leverage at captain. Musgrave looks solid in the flex with Kraft out. The Packers defense is also a risky but leverage play. The number of players with points left on the table indicate that 4 from the GB side might actually give more upside.

Philadelphia Eagles Stacks

Hurts has the most captain leverage, and then it currently drops down to Elliot, Tank Bigsby or one of the deep leverage plays in Shipley/Gipson. Goedert has a bit of leverage on my end, so a potential lineup may just be to take him at capt with Hurts in the flex.

Optimal Projections

Not a fan of this one, although interesting Hurts didnt make it but his two pass catchers did. I do see the 4-2 GB stack hit but I doubt I'd play Doubs captain due to lacking leverage.

Sims Insights

It seems that Wicks is showing up in winning lineups often and not so much in bad pairings. It also looks like Wicks and Goedert dont pair well together so will keep that in mind when building entries.

AJ Brown was flagged as negative leverage, with a pivot recommendation to Smith. I can get behind that with the DVOA data.

For captain and flex leverage these are the names most likely coming up in the sims

Top leverage plays are htting on these names the most often. i feel like we need to find 2-4 chalk and then pick 2 of these guys. I am leaning Love and Wicks mostly.

Good luck!

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Expectations vs Salary

First things first, we gotta understand who has been getting the work recently in relation to others on the slate. Surpringly no one has worked harder than Trevor Lawrence on this slate in the past 3 weeks. I wish he had a better game environment than Houston without CJ Stroud, or against an easier defense but that explains why no one is targetting him. If he is able to convert his work to points (without Brian Thomas Jr this week...), he could end up a top play, but that is asking a lot. Next level down is a stack with Jacoby Brissett and Trey Mcbride sitting there over the past 3 weeks of time. That is followed by a series of QB, CMC, JSN, and others. On the cheaper side (left upper), I see a series of TEs and Dyami Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, and Parker Washington so those are people I will keep in mind if looking for darts and value.

Vegas Expectations

Unlike last week, Vegas only has 1 game projecting over 50 points this week (Miami vs Buffalo). Those players will be popular as a result. However I have that game going under 50, with a different game expected to go over its implied total -> NY Giants vs Chicago. I'll be very curious what pieces we can pull from that in the next section, although a few other teams with strong totals too. My gut feeling says that run back options will only be wise if that Giants game blows up - with everything else just focused on finding the top play or stack.

Summary of Situations

As mentioned a few weeks ago, I think its wise to continue a top down approach when building lineups. Which games have the highest team totals, which of those teams will have an easier time running the ball and controlling the flow of the game (aka keeping the lead), and then establishing which WRs have a path to a ceiling game from that. So the top yellow line gives us step 1. Chicago has a high total and facing a weak run defense. Therefore I'll be highly interested in finding Swift or his backup in my first lineup. The Giants on this list are also facing a weak run defense so that makes things interesting after Tracy busted last week. Achane is showing to have a good rushing situation vs Buffalo but the issue is, will they be expected to control the game enough to get there? Its interesting that only 3 teams fall in the bad category this week, so we may need to rely on my RB algorithm, which says that Carolina will rush for a touchdown (aka Dowdle likely), Miami should rush for one (Achane) but neither of those teams project super high so if value at RB opens up, perhaps its Swift + 1 value RB, or Achane chalk this week, despite having low expectations for Miami scoring. Seattle, Detroit and Buffalo however may be candidates for top air raids, so lets see what the WRs have to offer for Dart, Goff and Darnold first.

Start with the Reciever

I am looking first at 2 names this week based on this: St Brown and JSN when it comes to setting lineups. Both in high scoring games. Both eating large shares of targets in their offense and both on teams expected to score a lot. After that, I see people like Shaheed in a new team with low ownership so maybe a double stack is viable with low ownership, or maybe a Wandale pairing with his RB or QB / run back for the Chicago game that is expected to put up points. Any of these WRs make for QB considerations but when aligning to Vegas teams that arent going to just run over their opponent, that is how things lay out.

Defense vs Recievers

It turns out that WR1 and WR2 have tough matchups in Seattle, but WR3, whether thats Kupp or Shaheed look open for business. Detroit has an easier path through St Brown and Gibbs if wanting to capture as much of their upside as possible.

Top Projections per Position

JSN and St Brown lead the projection side. McMillian continues to project high every week for some reason, same with Diggs despite neither necessarily doing a whole lot. McMillian is also questionable this week so I'm not going to trust him to do anything. As far as defense is concerned, an interesting Vikings defense is atop of the list vs Baltimore which is super high risk. They are gonna be super boom or bust so yolo on that pick, but for confidence, I will say that Minnesota has allowed the least amount of rush yards to QBs so far this season fwiw. Bills might be safer with a touch of leverage if they are to stop Achane. Seahawks defense being there with the Ravens as well is also interesting.

QBs with Recievers

Sims suggested a QB in the 5500 range and so I filtered down to these 5 QBs as contenders. Whats tricky this week is that 4 of the 5 all have a qualified WR to stack with, and most are below the value line. Due to the trade, Seattle has 2 options on the list and they all show positive pass blocking expectations. Bryce to Mcmillian will seemingly be the lowest ownership of all those stacks if you wanna try it. If taking one with a Vegas team total lean into it, Goff, Darnold or Dart make sense to me. Fields is the only one I simply cant account for.

RBs

Laptop died but is back up now, and I give you the RBs - already mentioned earlier. Rico is the chalk at the position and is some concern being under the line, but is in a good spot which means I wouldnt fade him for that reason. Chicago is my favorite pairing with him. Otherwise I think you must look CMC or Achane as a core anchor.

WRs

We touched on the WR position already fortunately, but showing the chart to see where workloads landed. Shaheed's work will change in some capacity but the ownership says hes playable in his new situation. Its high risk but if it hits he could get a long value touchdown that boosts you up the leaderboards. Also noting to check weather in these games as it gets cold and windy out.

TEs

The sims like someone in the 3200 range this week. If possible id get to just 1 this week but its the value position. AJ Barner looks like he fits the build most often, while Trey Mcbride workload is dominant in this position otherwise over the past 3 weeks. I believe he had a letdown week last week so it could bounce back. These other TEs below score well in my system:

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Expectations vs Salary (last 3 weeks)

The purpose of this chart, low key is to find both core and pivot plays. I naturally gravitate to the highest dot on the chart to find a core piece. Bo Nix. What I get from him is that his workload averages about 20 pts a game over the past 3 weeks. If all things go right, he should be able to exceed that, while many other players won't be able to come close to that due to their low expectations. Bowers and Franklin appear to be in the realm with their upside and usage. Mayer could be a value down the chart but with Bowers back, we should expect a dip in his expectations over time. Engram and a few dart plays exist in the cheapest end that we can watch for in upcoming visuals, at really low ownership for the pivot in lineup construction.

Vegas Expectations

I see that the actual Vegas implied totals anticipate a 26-16 type score. My projections show a 28-17 type score, likely due to home field advantage in my projection so we are close in that regards. However my team totals indicate that both teams have the ability to hit the over on this low total, and that can shift the thinking a bit. Teams who do go over the vegas implied totals tend to go over/under their totals by 7-10 points on average. The raiders score more than 16, that could put them in 26 point range, which would hurt the general consensus that Denver 5-1 stacks with the Denver defense + run game are the way to roll today. With the loss of Jakobi Meyers, I think that sentiment will keep folks off Vegas players a little more than they should, even though that bum hasnt done anything for weeks. Short weeks tend to favor the home teams so theres that element too. Peeking at oline dline matchups, just maybe the Raiders can get some run game going early. If not I fully expect the broncos defense to crush them in pass protection.

Defense vs Recievers

The Raiders have their best matchups by targetting the RB out of the backfield so Jeanty is in play whether playing from ahead or behind. The Broncos will find their best matchup with WR2. I project that to be Troy Franklin.

Redzone Report

Based on targets in the redzone, these are the most likely to score a touchdown tonight in the air. The highest scoring in my system are Engram, Tucker, and Bowers. Surprisingly Franklin falls right below the threshold I usually like to play in main slate so theres that too.

Sims Captain Selections

The sims are leading me to one of the following 3 plays as captains for the most part. Surprisingly not seeing any Dobbins but its likely due to finding the leverage in expectations.

Others rounding out the top 5 leverage are Geno and Engram. I think getting to 2-3 of these guys is what I'd want to do in any lineup.

Best and Worse Pairings

It would seem that Adam Prentice doesnt pair well with most players on this slate while many pairings with Denver players made the most sense. A 5-1 team stack also showed up in most of the top lineups today which would seemingly favor Denver with the Vegas total.

Pivot Opportunities

While I labeled these guys as 'bad chalk', they arent necessarily bad, but could pick up extra ownership. Therefore I found potential pivots in the price range of those players if wanting to produce more leverage.

Denver Stacks

Bo Nix has some slight leverage at captain over flex spots but most captain leverage starts with Sutton, Dobbins and Franklin. Broncos DST has leverage in the flex, with Harvey, Lutz and Engram right behind. Those numbers may adjust as we get closer to lock. It should be noted that Bo Nix captain is expected to be the most popular on the slate and therefore I will not lock him in that spot as of now.

Vegas Stacks

Brock Bowers looks like a clear cut favorite here, with Geno having more captain leverage than flex leverage. Tucker as some flex leverage with Carlson and Meyer right below. If I only build 1 lineup today, it may be a Bowers entry based on everything I saw so far.

Optimal Lineup

For those who play the projections, this is what the optimizer spit out. I assume Mostert is over projected so maybe theres a play worth swapping out. I usually don't like playing the optimizer's captain in the captain spot so that might make for a change too in my primary lineup tonight unless something stands out in his workload that makes it viable for him to get a touchdown worth of points.

Stuff in the pipeline (under construction)

I work on this stuff every day / every night, in search of the most unique insights I can find in these draftkings slates. What you see above are just snapshots of where my head is at in creating things that leads to success on a normal basis. Its part of a web app that I'm working on in order to put this data in your hands at some point. Lots to work out to get from this point to that one, but as you can see, its slowly rolling out, yet in the works.

The Chalk Lineup

This is how most people are building this week. I will say that either achane or dowdle are going into my lineup (leaning dowdle), with a potential JSN today as a way to stay grounded. Now looking at the highest projected lineup I can make:

The Goff stack stands out with rico and JSN so that is interesting.

Check back soon as data will update as news is released. As usual, I am starting the week with the upcoming slate's charts up top and will continue to grow the page - or on an X thread for quick updates, so follow both! And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.