NFL Showdown - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens - Jan 1 2023
- dfsedric
- Jan 1, 2023
- 2 min read
Updated: Jan 1, 2023
First things first - if you havent followed my articles, take a look at what I wrote up for this week's main slate. I try to explain the process better in this week's article as I went through it
Updated 7:05pm
Lets see how these things are shaping up
The Steelers are showing a bit of value although the Ravens are showing higher odds than value. I'm seeing that folks may be avoiding secondary WRs and RBs for the most part while paying for QBs and TEs. I'm tempted to take a shot on Oliver for this reason if I play one because of his place on the chart for the price.
Looking for underowned plays in those spots, I see Robinson, Warren, and Benny Snell as low owned plays. As a team, Baltimore may be underowned for their odds while Pittsburgh may be overowned. Lets get more clues as to how to stack this game.
Vegas vs My Projected Totals
For this game, the spread and my total is pretty close, no prob. I do have this game going slightly under the total points vegas has projected. So low owned, close game with two teams that dont produce a lot of points and good defenses. That means kickers may be in play. Which team will underperform?
Defense vs Receivers
Both of these teams have above average pass defenses. However there are still attack pints. It seems RB and WR1 for Baltimore may be good spots. It also seems that WR2 vs Baltimore is a solid space for points. Division matchup in their 2nd meeting does make it feel less likely to matter to be honest, as these teams will do what they want. Gonna side with snaps and volume today.
Snaps
I am using this mostly for the dart plays (bottom left of the scatter plot who are above the line). Gotta make sure guys like Oliver actually run routes and didnt see an increase recently due to injuries to other players. Warren seems to get around 20 snaps a game which does make him playable.
Projections
Maybe Huntley, Pickett or Pickens as options that could make good captains but lets see. I sort this top to bottom in order to find the best stackable team to go for. I'm going to build 2 lineups today, 1 for each team with 4 plays from each side.
When Stacking the Ravens
I will make 1 lineup with Huntley capt but leaning Pitt Capt. This makes sense to get some leverage though so Dobbins or Edwards is a decision too.
When Stacking the Steelers
There is a pathway to playing Kenny at the captain spot it seems. There are also deep darts like Warren and Sims who can give you extra leverage if they catch a TD with that build in place.
Check back to this page specifically for updates as more information comes in!
Comments