NFL Week 17 Odds, Expectations and Leverage Points for Draftkings GPP - Dec 2024

This is the last slate of the year and it will not be easy. With a short prep ahead, my thoughts are that we will see some chalky plays ahead. Understanding that some of that chalk is good chalk is key because we will have several plays in unknown territory, several weather impacted games, and several teams not playing for anything down the stretch. This is possibly the smallest main slate we've seen in a while - only 8 games, 16 QBs, etc. I am in the mindset of absorbing as much upside as possible, so lets find it.

Salary vs Potential Points (last 3 weeks)

The weekend games so far have been quite a mess, but that has also removed quite a bit of playable pieces from the board from the top. Next up? Josh Allen as the top overall usage on the slate with Davante and Nabers beneath him. If any of them have winnable matchups, I'm likely to gravitate that direction. Rodgers and Darnold appear to be in the QB zone with both their WR1s towards the top of this chart. Then followed by several TEs plus Wicks, Pittman and McMillian on the cheap value usage side of things.

Vegas Projections

This section may be a bit less useful than usual due to weather concerns everywhere. I see the highest Vegas total is supposed to be Minnesota vs Green Bay. My sheet says that the Buffalo vs Jets game is it, but that game has expected 20 MPH winds and rain. Philly would be next up except Hurts is out, and the impact of that is an unknown but Vegas has the game total severely less than I do (Lamb is out too, and definite rain). Then finally Tampa also playing in the number 3 game total with definite rain and Chuba out. Overall, when expecting low totals, dome games and work load might be more important than normal touchdown scorers. The Vikings game and the saints game are the only two dome games we have (without rain).

Game Script

Taking a peek at rankings, one of the better rankings that I can see is with Darnold's passing situation at home vs the Packers, in a meaningful game. Minnesota has actually given up the most fantasy points to receivers.

Defense vs Receivers

Here are the list of situations for passing that may be favorable based on scheme and personnel. Adams and Wilson are in good spots vs Buffalo. Bowers and/or Tucker could be good options for the Raiders.

Optimal Lineup

On the surface, it appears that this could be cheap QB day. However what is also happening in the backend of this; is that the cheap RBs are not quite factoring into my system very well. I may manually bump one up after looking a bit further into each backup. IF you wish to avoid the cheap QBs, perhaps there is something to the Jets today based on 3 showing up in this pay up build.

Summary of Situations

These are the situations I will reference as we go position to position, and also what bake into the projections.

Player Projections

On the surface, Baker to Mike Evans looks like the thing to do for points. The issue here is the ownership that comes with it may pigeon hole a lineup construction that leaves little wiggle room for other pieces. Maybe Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen as they face each other. Rodgers seems to want to go out on a high note this season so I wont be surprised if he tries.

Sims

Interestingly the sims suggest that this will be a low scoring week, and also seems to hint at paying down across the board on average. It seems that we will definitely want a QB with 25 pt potential as everything else seems a bit low this week.

These players sim'ed the most.

QB

RB

WR

TE

Top Chalk and Most Ownership

Top Leverage