NFL Week 2 - Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Main Slate 2025

dfsedric
Sep 13
4 min read

When I think about week 2 success and failures over the year, it reminds me that it is one of the most difficult weeks of the year to predict. It is a week into the season where we do not have enough data to say what is going to happen yet. We also expect overreactions to last week's performances. Meanwhile most big players do not have back to back big performances all year. So that leaves me with some weird data points to work with, and a sheet that is half 2025 with 1 week sample vs a 2024 data sheet that is still outdated. However one thing for sure is that we still have to play this like poker and figure out how we can become different from the ownership which is specific to this slate.

Ceilings vs Salary

Now this particular chart is a blend of player expectations vs their workload from the end of 2024 for the most part, but also a one game sample size for some guys like Hollywood Brown, who had a very large role last week with Xavier Worthy going down. Worthy was back to practice so seeing him atop with high ownership does not feel great to target imo, but we do want to find guys high on the chart with lower ownership. Chiefs players including Mahomes (2024 data) are atop of the chart heavily, but on a weird travel week, that wont be easy to feel good about in stacks vs the Eagles. Next closest being Nix and Wilson - and neither of them necessarily looked good last week. Gonna keep my eye on Daniel Jones, also on a 1 week sample, but could be a high value QB for low ownership potentially.

Vegas

This is mostly 2024 data but i did update pace of play to 2025 and calculated these totals. Surprisingly KC is in the top projected scoring game, granted I have Philly winning it. Baltimore and Detroit showing some high team scores potentially, with Buffalo/Jets and Detroit/Chicago (on a short week) also being potentially high scoring. Idealy as season goes on those scores will help find games to target when projections dont align with Vegas expectations.

Summary

Getting the big picture view of what we have in this slate, what QBs or rushing situations look best, etc and where the battles could be won in the trenches.

DST/Projected Oline vs Dline Advantages

This is a blended data set where I look at the O-line vs D-line matchup to determine who might have success/failures in passing and rushing. Seems I have to manually fix a couple teams but this is a starting point. Two key teams in week 1 2025 seemingly suffered extra in pass pressure unexpectedly and Philadelphia/Detroit are those teams. It is why we cant overreact in week 2 but I'm certainly monitoring their protection this week.

QB

So what are we looking for here; QBs ideally above the line, who have a good QB situation, and the ideal spot is looking like 5300-5600 range, which is Aaron Rodgers/Justin Fields range. The issue with those two is that last week they went off in a good game environment for no ownership. This week no telling if they are going to keep the volume up at this stage in the season. One name atop of this chart is Daniel Jones who did see high usage in week 1, behind a better offensive line in Indianapolis. That makes him a contender. Hurts, Allen Lamar project for the most points but are the most expensive and not quite hitting the value marks. Therefore I may wait to look at who the top WRs are and then pick my top QBs.

RB

Heres the thing with RB. Volume is king. I am looking for whoever we can project for top touches more than anything, so guys like Kamara, Cleveland rb (might be the rookie instead of Sampson, CMC, Kyren, and Kenneth are all in the mix. Chubba too at 5% ownership. Last week I took the Jerome Ford and that sucked. But the Cleveland line can open up some rushing holes so if we think he gets 20 touches he certainly is in play. This is the one position where I throw ownership out the window, and CMC apparently is the top owned on the slate, but is likely to dominate touches. The reason I would consider not playing CMC is if we believe the defense will stack the box to stop him today with Mac Jones starting and WRs limited.

WR

Expected Points have Brown atop of this view this week, but I'm ok with fading him, with the numerous options in the KC lineup to choose from. This is one of the more unpredictable teams in the NFL when it comes to receivers so theres almost no way I take a chalk Chiefs WR. Lamb is more expensive but also similar workload to what Brown saw last week. Wilson and Coleman are both quite high on the list too for projections which makes them appealing. The WRs projecting well sorta lead me to considering Mahomes, Dak, and Burrow as guys I wont rule out in a single entry, as stacking could pan out here. Chase was chalk, didnt get the ball much but now just may bounce back.

Seems Higgins is in the ideal smash spot as WR2, along with the TE for the Bengals. Otherwise Ceedee looks to be the best WR1 on the chart so thats where I'll head first, possibly with Dak paired. Also noting that Jameson Williams is set up nicely in Detroit. I think some are going towards St Brown who has a tougher matchup by far, so maybe worth a pivot. Also noting AJ Brown didnt get much work last week, but is in a good spot this week. That keeps his projection down but just maybe he comes up pretty big.

TE

In the previous chart, SF, NE, Denver, and Arizona all have good spots for TE success. Fant appears to stand out the most as far as value is concerned in a good spot.

Top 5 Projections

Optimal Lineup

I will likely build something like this for cash game purposes since it covers all my projections, and optimizes them. Lets just see what happens with it, but also would encourage finding pivots off some plays here to build a stronger GPP lineup.