NFL Week 3 - Odds, Leverage and Analysis for Main Slate Draftkings Tournaments 2025

I am about 75% up to speed with my data points from last year - and this week I decided to rip the 2024 bandages off. We are going on a 2 week sample size which means some play may be over polarized vs reality, but it is still better than blending the two years of data imo. This slows down the process and causes delays in putting out this writeup so hopefully focusing on current year will speed things up a bit in production. I am only starting this writeup for now to get an idea of what is going on as ownership changes up to the last minute. Lets get going.

Expectations vs Salary

In 2 weeks of work, Josh Allen, who played Thursday night, leads the league in expected points but number 2, surprisingly is Daniel Jones. That makes him an instant gpp option if he remains under 5% owned through the weekend. That is also higher than CMC who is 3rd highest on the slate. We can get into matchups and whatnot, but thats where everyone else focuses their attention for core plays. Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young are also names who have had a bit of opportunity so far, for their price tags. If they happen to connect on their volume, they will blow up, but honestly I don't think any of them are truly that good of players to hit more than once or twice this season (thus the ownership). If someone like Rattler hits though - ironically Chris Olave is also flying highest of the WRs right now, with Juwan Johnson coming in as the highest TE in workload, and Olave under 10% ownership/Johnson around 5% is a nice low owned stack for starting the writeup based on pivot positions.

Vegas Projections

As mentioned, a 2 week sample but for whatever reason the Chicago / Dallas game shows high potential for points, with Green Bay also showing the same 30 pt potential as a team. Tampa vs Jets and New England vs Pittsburg all extreme high points showing on the limited 2 game sample. Take it with a grain of salt for now as this chart takes some time to gain more accuracy. Sadly I have the Saints as the lowest scoring team on the slate so that doesn't help the idea of stacking.

The Trenches (offensive line vs defensive line)

I think lots of games are won based on protection and how well the team projects in their matchups. I look at this to get an understanding of how teams might hold up in their blocking schemes based on how they have performed so far. It is my own formula and a work in progress (thus the over 100% values are likely needing to be adjusted..) but sticking with this for the weekend. Cincinatti should have issues with Jake Browning although he seems to operate better than Burrow behind the offensive line. New Orleans actually looks solid along with Houston across the board. Washington too but Jayden is likely out.

Summary of Situations

This is the summary of teams that fall into playable situations. I will likely reference these guys when I do the position by position breakdown.

Defense vs Receivers

This is based on 2025 data this week aka 2 game samples, but you can see where the holes and funnels like. Some big names ending up in good spots like Nico, and then some may be misnamed as WR (Devonta vs AJ Smith) so I do recommend using names only as a reference but making your own decision as to who should be in the given spot.

Top 5 Projections by Position

This is how things are projecting, barring no errors in my sheets. Hopefully the Vikings DST does something although Chase is also projecting top 5 so one of the two have to give.

QBs

I ran sims to get an idea of what projections will say even with a 2 game sample. Expecting a QB around the 5500 salary mark to be the winner today per that sim. As projected, Rodgers, May and Caleb are all the top projected QBs, all in good situations, and all in games where they are expected to put up points against potentially bad pass defenses. Rodgers is the only one not showing as a value based on his workload but yet has low ownership expectations. Caleb is the only one that projects with a top 5 WR in projections but has the highest ownership. Maybe Ill test the waters with 2 game stack style lineups and one Caleb lineup that gets contrarian elsewhere this week. It is worth noting that the best and most expensive QBs are all seemingly under value from a usage perspective but also low owned for the most part.

RB

Running backs are interesting this week, because the general habit is to pay up for the position. However I am not seeing CMC project out entirely hot in the sims at his price. Hes got a safe floor and all due to being game script independent, but I dont see him as a requirement. Jordan Mason is also the other interesting chalk this week, as if many lineups are simply going to play both. He is expecting more workload with Aaron Jones out, so him being below the value line doesn't bother me. He is also in the salary range that I think RBs will need to be in. I circled names above the line that expect good run blocking and bad run defenses, although there are so many other options this week that can work out (Jonathan Taylor, Stevenson, Chase come to mind). That is why I don't mind getting away from chalk at the position. The sim recommendation is to average about 6100 on RBs spent in the lineup.

WR

WR is tough this week but I tend to go for lower owned receivers. There are a few names sticking out in ownership like Odunze, who is likely WR2, so that is problematic to attach to when all the Chicago WRs face weaker defense today. Then Olave is the top play in expectations but faces a tough matchup in Seattle. Puka also is one of my fav WRs for season long this year, but Adams is actually getting a little more work than he is over 2 weeks, with half the projected ownership. I may eat the chalk on Njigba this week, although Kupp has potential to take away from him as well today.

TE

TE is literally the last position I set in a lineup because I typically have issues projecting them. I will say that volume wise Johnson leads the pack and that makes him good if the remaining salary fits. Sims recommends slightly cheaper and Gesicki is the only name that aligns in that case. I see a few candidates otherwise like Fanin who have workload for cheap if needed. I have 0 interest in playing McBride personally but for some reason he is super chalky in ownership projections.

Optimal Lineup

This is what the optimizer spit out today. It is interesting to see 2 potential pay up RBs and then such value everywhere else. I may run this one just to see how things land, and another where I actually build stacks around it.

Top Ownership Projected

Updates show Kenneth Walker is ballooning up. Normally I dont mind chalky RBs but I dont see what led to this increase exactly aside from price. His workload isnt quite up to par and it is touchdown specific imo. So what if he fails today? a. i like the idea of playing the opposing RB in this game -> Alvin Kamara, who is in a good spot for receiving as is and lower owned today.

b. could double down on the leverage and take the saints defense as a long shot. I like JSN though - but with both of them being chalk, the angle would be that the saints dominate the seahawks at the line today and both get shut down. It gets thin trying that approach but wanted to call that out.

Another thought incoming; the top owned QB this week will be Caleb Williams. One of my top projected DST plays is Dallas. I know what youre thinking - these guys suck. Yes they do! But... what if they find success against Caleb today, who I believe also sucks? I wont play a ton of them but best believe I am taking that leverage one time just in case that game environment stinks and they pick up a pick 6 today in their scoring. If you really wanna get a lil bit more - one name I circled in this game is Javonte Williams, under 10% owned. Lets see it one time for potential lineup correlation.

Finally, the Packers DST is one of the top projected but also one of the top owned today. What if they fail? That means someone from Cleveland must have done something. That would put me on a Cleveland RB. Maybe its time for the rookie Jenkins to do something for 0% ownership? We will see!