NFL Week 4 - Draftkings - October 1st 2022

Week 3 was profitable but no GPP takedowns so we try again. I'm going to take a look at things a lil differently this week. Position by Position breakdown, looking at salary based expected points to find good ways to pivot and put it together.

QBs

Of course Josh Allen is the most expensive right up there with Lamar Jackson. However Allen plays on a different level when it comes to fantasy production. 11% owned, but Lamar could be a pivot at half his ownership. Oddly enough Murray falls in no mans land at sub 2%, perhaps due to not having hardly any weapons.

If we look into those living in cheap housing, Trevor Lawrence at 2% and Carson Wentz at 1.5% are two names I see short ownership on. Therefore will have a chunk of both.

RBs

The top names are pretty clear in Barkley, Williams and Gibson. No scary ownership there because of Jamaal Williams absorbing it. His opportunity will go up this week and therefore it makes sense. James Robinson is also very intruiging in that price range. Breece Hall is showing more potential than Michael Carter yet is projected for less ownership. Just gotta see what his situation is going into the week.

WRs

Ill be honest, I've never heard of Garrett Wilson but seeing that hes up there with Diggs and Davante in workloads after 3 weeks of work and 4% ownership... I'm just gonna go on a limb and say he should be in your lineups. Zay Jones, Jacobi and Keelan Cole are all sorta floating high on the value line as well for no ownership. Marquise Brown is otherwise the highest expectation with the lowest odds in the upper range as well so likely a leverage spot.

TE

Theres Mark Andrews and then theres everyone else (note Kelce is off slate). Ertz and Waller are the next closest thing and looking at around 5% each. I likey wont go deep diving in this position a whole lot otherwise.

Summary of situations

Now that we know where pivot points are, its time to marry them to matchups. Detroit Seattle projects to be the top game but keep in mind the players out. I do not account for that and therefore production may not quite be there for a team missing 3 of its top skill players. I do think there is leverage in targetting the passing game there though if playing Jamal Williams.

Defensive Holes and Stacks

These are the biggest holes in the receiving game today. In some cases it makes sense to pair them up. Others maybe not enough volume to warrant it.

I may have more updates to this post so check back up to lock. If there is enough interest, Ill try and get a review up for optimal players through the first 4 weeks.