NFL Week 4 Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments 2025

Its a rare day where I can actually post super duper early this week. I wouldnt get used to it though, I mean the numbers are soft and will change. Injuries will change lines and lines will change ownership numbers and so forth. However because of the work put in during the first few weeks to solidify what I am doing with my process, I can share some things with confidence before some of these other sites do. In return, be sure to like the post that brought you here, and share your thoughts as well, which may help in cases where I miss things. Also check back throughout the week as some data ends up on twitter/X while I may also have majority in this page when you refresh. Lets go!

Expectations vs Salary

This field now has 3 games worth of data for many, but 1 game for some who have been injured (lookin at Purdy). What we see here is that Josh Allen and Spencer Rattler and Daniel Jones and - maybe even Bryce Young are all similar in the amount of usage they have had in their offenses. The difference is that Josh Allen actually converts his work into touchdowns and points while Rattler has just been going through the motions in catchup time. If for some reason Rattler actually connects his passes with receivers one day he will put up Josh Allen numbers and win someone a GPP. However he sucks and that may never happen. But that sorta explains the importance of this view to me. Keep those names in mind at the top of the chart because when they hit the right situations later, we should play them and hope they don't suck that day.

Vegas Odds

Sometimes the heart of the edge can be found in the Vegas odds. The lines given by Vegas on the left will help tell us which games are most likely to shootout or dud out. What if they are wrong though? The good thing is - less people will take the mid to lower total that are wrong (i.e. Raiders last week) and majority of the crowd will take the high totals and potentially bust (see Dallas vs Chicago thanks to Lamb being 30% owned). So on the right side, I estimate what the game totals might actually end up as in order to find a few possible game environments of interest or underdogs that might be undervalued. Minnesota vs Pittsburg could be one of those games where Vegas total is set to 40.5 and I projected 49 points. Some games are missing data but that will get fixed later.

Summary of Situations

Many players will rely on this level of data where we spot the weak pass and run defenses to target. I go a step further in the lists made - like finding situations around those elements that boost their ability to get the job done. The more times you see a team or player name, the better odds of them being a good play this week.

Defense vs Receivers

This is a DVOA chart to help narrow down and show which teams and receiving options might have a shot to go off. My experience is that the name doesn't always hit, because sometimes it comes down to a specific CB being worse in coverage than others. The key though is to find plays that are likely to have a combination of volume and the potential to get work filtered their way when others have tough matchups. Nico vs Tennessee for example looks promising due to a sharp funnel to the WR1 spot.

Offensive lines vs Defensive Lines

It seems like many QBs are going to be more protected on this slate than usual as I'm not seeing any major disadvantages in the passing game but a lil more extreme on the rushing side.

I updated this to reflect a few items with more definition this morning.

Projections (early)

The names and numbers are likely to shift as we get closer. Broncos are likely to be popular and a good play at defense vs the Bengals - especially after what happened last week. Some names had big weeks last week and therefore they are skewed up (Hunter Henry), but not necessarily going to have back to back big weeks so keep that in mind. However this is what things look like before I go make modifications up until Sunday.

Injuries

All unlikely to play. Some were known and some were not. Will circle back on this list.

Updated Injuries

May be some value in getting to the backup TE for cincinatti.

Check back for showdown content on my X feed -> x.com/dfsedric

********Main Slate********

Game Flow

I sorted this by expected pace of play, which shows potential for the Giants and Chargers to run more plays than anyone else this week, unless the new QB situation slows things down for New York. For the most part, I like the idea of the Bills passing situation vs New Orleans, who funnel to the pass, so maybe its Josh Allen week.

Ceiling Finder

I am looking for a few things here; 1 is the highest points on this chart (aka CMC), one is the highest teams on this chart for stacking (Purdy to CMC, S Rattler to Olave/Juan Johnson, and then Bryce Young to Hunter Renfrow), and one is the value on the far left. Orionde Gadsden is a new name to me, and showing low ownership as a TE who could get you 10 points, in a high paced game (chargers vs giants). Last week Geno to Tre Tucker was available by the same methodology although I didn't call it out until going back to review his situation.

Top Projected Players

Something I am trying to do differently is understanding which players had a big game the week before that project well the next week, as those players tend to be let downs. Caleb was last week's highest projected and one of the actual top QBs and now 3rd this week. I would be hesitant to trust that happening 2 weeks in a row. Bryce Young is showing up with a stackable WR so that is really interesting this week. Hunter Henry would be a nice runback except he had a big week last week as well. As far as defenses, I think we are on our own this week as none of these make sense in terms of being great plays in my system.

Update: I made a change to my defense system so hopefully Titans have a good day this week vs Houston.

QBs

This position is quite interesting this week. Looking at projections, Bryce is actually in the realm of possibility and so that will be a top play I go for. Then sims are saying the 5700ish range is ideal. Caleb Williams is in a prime spot to do well once again so i will try to build one for him after all. Josh Allen in a potential blow out could get us the 28 points at qb that we want. Then there's also Jared Goff, below the value line, but in a good spot for QB points at under 1% projected ownership. Gotta respect that. Mahomes is in play for me as well because of the game environment and because KC projects well for the WR1.

RBs

I circled about 5 names that make sense on the RB based on run defense and sims. If there are any backups moving into a starting role that will help them as well. I know Omarion Hampton is potentially getting more work with Najae out so I did boost his projection manually.

WRs

WR is tied to the success of the QB and so I focused my circles on those lower owned WRs who are on teams with a good QB situation. It seems to be more value options at WR this week so I doubt i pay up for Nacua. I also note that Chris Olave usage is really high so I am ok skipping on that this week even though his workload is ideal for a lineup. Meyers is in this range but over 20% owned and Im not sure why yet.

TEs

TE is usually the last man in the lineup for me. There are four teams this week where the TE is the weakest point of their defense and oddly enough Hunter Henry is sorta prime spot on this list. Cmet is also in a good spot but the problem is that the Raiders appear weak against all positions. Kelce is a big question mark because the Chiefs tend to save him for later in the year, but being down 1-2 in a big game, I wont be surprised if they give him (or Noah Gray) a workload this week.

Optimal Lineup

This is what produced from my projections - a Josh Allen stack and Carolina sub stack. I know the Browns projected the best defense but I'm not entirely sure I wanna use that one. In fact, all of the defenses on the main slate project a bit lower than usual so that is a point of concern but maybe a reason to punt it as well.

Leverage

The ownership is extremely tight between 2 plays: Puka and CMC. I don't believe either is a must play by any means. I added a new view to look for teams with leverage as well, and to my surprise, Detroit is the top average leverage per player, with Baltimore and Carolina right beneath. Those are areas i think we can potentially stack from if it makes sense to. One play I'm considering for large fields is going to be Jared Goff - stacked maybe to Amon St Brown, just because of the high level of leverage for a low amount of ownership.

Looking at the Ravens:

Looking at the Panthers:

All 3 of those QBs were in the top projections or the good spot for QBs list or both. I am going to use those 3 for this week as I build lineups.

GL!