NFL Week 5 Odds, Leverage and Analysis for Draftkings Tournaments

This writeup is meant for those who have an idea of what they want to do but want to find different angles that could go off. I won't be the one to say "Play Justin Fields because the pass defense is weak". Instead I will say "What if Justin Fields fails?" One or two plays can change the look of your lineup if you are willing to take the right chances. Lets see where the chances unfold.

I will also mention that the salary predictor has been pretty much perfect in the first four weeks so I am going to lean into that since it has worked well for QBs and RBs on main slates. The top RB advantages will also be something to lock in as core plays regardless of ownership IMO. WR and TE will be where I try and stay different the most often. I made some changes that will appear a little higher this week for some of those key plays.

Expectations vs Salary

When looking at things holistically, Kyler Murray actually has had the most potential points of any player on this slate over the past 4 weeks, yet he isn't the highest salary on the slate nor ownership. Rattler and Daniel Jones are up there with him.

Vegas Expectations

The Dallas vs Jets game is two bad defenses facing each other as we all know, and therefore we expect things to go over the Vegas total and possibly shootout here. Indianapolis vs Vegas and then Carolina vs Miami are 2 other games that have good potential for scoring. Cincinnati vs Detroit also shows a bit of potential in scoring on the Detroit side anyways. I saw a stat that shows the punter in Cincinatti has more yards than the offense this season. Upset potential exists with Denver vs Philadelphia - as I project Denver could win outright if they can force Philly into passing situations.

Offensive vs Defensive Line Matchups

Detroit defense looks like a slam dunk. Probably popular this week wth good reason. The Bengals suck. The Giants over the Saints is also viable, and then Denver over Philly will be much lesser owned if you wanna take that dart as they are underdogs. The Raiders dont look like they will be in great position for passing so that 2nd game with the high total is suspect.

Summary of Situations

This page is something I will reference in my position breakdown as it pertains to each position. I will say that the top rb team vs weak run defense has made the optimal a few times now so I may rely on them a bit more this week as core.

Top Plays by Position (projections) - updated

These are my projections for the week. I made some changes to how the RBs and TEs are being projected this week so the numbers are a bit higher than they have been. There is a receiver score column added as well. Essentially plays over 25% are what we want to get to so I projected those up to ensure I dont lose them to situational nonsense.

One thing I want to say about projections as some people literally try and build the highest projected lineup. That is not a winning strategy as thats what optimizers are for. I reference them to find the situations that matter in the slate, but when it comes to building lineups, I am looking for correlation and upside a bit more than just the projection itself.

Optimal Lineup

The optimizer for me actually avoided Fields and went to Herbert per my numbers. The Lions DST stacked with Gibbs and the Herbert to LAC WR makes this an interesting optimal lineup so I will play it in a cash game as usual, but this is in no way a recommendation for playing in tournaments, granted I do like how it came together.

QB

This is quite the interesting week. Justin Fields and Daniel Jones definitely check the most boxes as it pertains to all of the trend watching that I'm doing. My sim points to spending around 5500 at QB. I add and subtract about 300 each direction to get QBs in that range which is what you see in the box. Most people are seemingly going to play one or the other. Fields is problematic because unless he scrambles for large plays, his floor is sometimes lower. The good thing is that Dak projects to be in a good passing situation too, so the game environment has the potential to go off with an easily stackable Garrett Wilson. However his usage is below the value line meaning there are cases where he might not get the ceiling game you would expect. So we look down the list a bit at the not so obvious plays after Daniel Jones, the perceived chalk.

1. Geno Smith - who I believe was chalk for unknown reasons last week. Now showing a potential 2.4% ownership and within my range of candidates! While he is not showing up in the projections, one of his WRs are in my top 5, and that is a reason to consider him alone. I believe stacks should start with the WR and work backwards, and Tre already showed he can win a GPP with his upside this year already.

2. Bo Nix - vs Philadelphia this one is a bit trickier because he is an underdog (which can be a good thing). The issue with Philadelphia is that if they control the pace of the game, the run game will dominate and Nix will have less opportunity to throw. But as mentioned I do think Denver can upset Philadelphia. If they are to do that, I like that he has one of the top Usage numbers of the QBs on this slate. None of his WRs or TEs project well vs Philly so there is an empty spot there if stacking. Mims would be the guy I watch all year because of his yards per route numbers. Oh and he is looking like less than 2% owned at QB too!

3. Tua T - So Tua is now without Tyreek.. and that really changes this offense a bit. However one reason you might consider playing him is because Achane is coming in as chalk as of this writing. What better way to leverage the field than to move up than to score touchdowns from Tua to Darren Waller or Waddle while the Achane lineups stay one one place. Or play Achane with Tua to absorb any passing touchdowns to Achane and double down on touchdown equity. Last week, Puca was the chalk and no one paired him with the QB so theres that.

4. CJ Stroud - Why play CJ? Well, Nico Collins is my top projected WR this week so if he is to be successful, the QB likely will be the reason. Its another case of potentially stacking the QB based on the WR so I really like that idea of playing a not so obvious QB

RB

With running back, normally I like to take the first name facing the worst run defense. However when I see New Orleans I feel much less confident in that decision than ever. The run blocking doesnt look great for New Orleans. The one reason it might be worth some exposure is because no one believes it would work out and Kamara is sub 10% owned. The sim number is 5900 spent on RBs. The difference here is that you will want to play 2 or 3 RBs and keep the average price around there. Gibbs is the top projected RB but at 7000, you would need a 4800 RB paired with him to get the average down. I will say that with Bucky Irving out, Rashaad White is 4700 as the starter so there are options to make it happen. Ownership at RB is less of a concern to me than any other position, so its much better to get the RB right as its too. I circled the two top options based on value and price and GPP playability. But like last week, there could be a few good plays between projections and leverage.

WR

WR is a bit more tricky to use with the sims because you need 3-4 of them, and so the salary estimates dont quite do it justice. However we do know that workload and matchups matter big time towards WR scoring. Olave continues to be highly targeted and so he tops the chart, but also has Rattler throwing to him unsuccessfully. Chris Godwin quietly jumped up the middle of the chart as someone seeing workload- second most but yet 4% owned due to Seattle defense expectations. Then we also have the chalk sitting on St Brown and JSN mostly. I see a few value options as well on the far left side of the chart. I also made a new scoring system this past week for WRs, so sharing that now with my starting pool:

This is my list of qualified WRs this week. I believe it can be narrowed down further. WRs for example, I like to remove plays with a really negative QB score as that may come down to other factors that keep their QB from scoring a lot (baltimore, philly and the saints at least, potentially Detroit and Cinci as well). Then I like to see WRs with a 20% target share most often to eliminate some low volume WRs. Theres a couple with a decent percentage of routes where they are the first read on the offense and then a few others like Troy Franklin who stand out for having a few plays over 40 yards. DVOA mentions guys who might align well vs the defense. Paired with above situational items, there are a few different ways to go at WR this week with Nico, Marvin, Quentin and maybe Troy Franklin as my favorites on this list.

Defense vs Receivers

As we zoom in and find WRs who face a friendly defense, Nico, Waddle, Pittman and Wilson all stand out. Wandale Robinson does as well especially with Nabers out. Most other situations appear to be WR2 space.

TE

Referencing the projections and the above chart, I am leaning towards Dalton Schultz as a top play this week, but really all of these TEs score well in the projection list. The sim says to go for 3200 range but I usually see what i have left after every other position is filled in first. I did make a new scoring system around TEs this week, so I do want to dive into it real quick:

My whole pool of TEs is shown here, as the starting point. This list can be narrowed down even further IMO. Some TEs are playing tough DVOA matchups (Mark Andrews plays the number 5 toughest defense against TE, Engram plays the number 1 defense). Next, Geisick, AJ Barner and Theo Johnson are only seeing about 3 targets or less per game so I am less interested in them (although Barner appears to be the top redzone option on the team). The higher the score, the more boxes were checked as far as that TE having a higher floor. Tyler Warren and Tre McBride look like the safest play and chalk is showing that this is no secret. I will say that I just noticed that Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau are trending towards returning so I don't like Juwan Johnson despite his chart position.

If this writeup helps, consider liking the post that brought you here.

Top Ownership and Pivot Points

I wanted to get an idea of where the top plays are being owned the most first. Most are paying up for RB this week and then seemingly not paying up for WR entirely. This is a good reason to think about your total RB salary used as that in itself is contrarian this week. Not noted here but QB wise, most are paying for Justin Herbert at QB, which is my top projected QB as well. Fields and Daniel Jones are the only QBs otherwise taking up that ownership. My recommendation on QBs: If playing those guys, remember that taking the WR1 with that play is going to lock your lineup down to become a likely duplicate in tournaments. For example, I am certain that most of the Herbert lineups are going to play Quentin Johnson so there are paths to less ownership if assuming Keenan or Ladd are the WR2 in the good spot today.

I underlined the highest ownership and then circled the guys who stand out the most to me on this chart. Rattler gets the yellow circle because I caution anyone on it, but between projections and his usage.. I cant ignore it entirely. If I were to estimate the potential for a bust, I want to say JSN is actually someone I am playing the least of the chalk this week. At 30% and not a value by any means, I see a few chargers for cheaper. I also see Jake Ferguson as a viable pivot to Warren or McBride today. Darren Waller isnt picking up ownership as I expected and finally Troy Franklin is my favorite WR dart next to Rashid Shaheed who I forgot to circle. The other guy I'm just not getting to? Is DeVon Achane. The issue I have after looking into this, is that the passing game makes the most sense to me, but it makes more sense from a WR1 and TE perspective. Carolina is ranked 1st against pass catching RBs. So I will do this Tua stack and hope it consolidates away from Achane for most of the points.

Good luck!