NFL Week 7 - Showdown and Main Slate Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Oct 2024

I am going to try and consolidate my posts a bit more since this is all tied to Week 7, starting with the Thursday Night Football showdown with the New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos. There are a ton of key injuries which means we are going to see quite a bit of variance tonight. Variance means "opportunity to be different" around here. In order to be different, we must understand what most people are going to do. And since most people don't win 1st place, being different in a good way can result in a big win. That's leverage.

As the week goes on, I will continue to update this writeup, my twitter/X thread, and key visuals with data changes leading up to lock. Lets go

After writing out the 2 game slate, these names stuck out for those who are short in time trying to build either direction. The detailed review is still below.

Cheat Sheet

Cash:

QB Baker / Lamar

RB Henry

WR Godwin

TE Otton

DST Ravens

GPP

QB Baker

RB Sean Tucker / Kimani Vidal / Justice Hill

WR Evans

TE Andrews

DST Ravens

Monday Night Football: Salary vs Expectations

As usual, I am going through my logic tree so you can follow the train of thought. Lamar and Baker are at the highest points of this chart and therefore have the highest expected points on this 2 game slate. I see Baker is a bit more blue, meaning less people are playing hi than expected in projected ownership. Maybe due to his weak performances on MNF? The matchup? It is difficult to say at this point, but keep in mind that QBs as underdogs are quite OK because they are more likely to have to pass to get ahead.

Cade Otton is floating as a value for the price. Also, disregard the DSTs, as I default them at 5 pts.

I underlined the perceived chalk and circled the guys of interest based on ownership as a reminder to look closer at their situations.

Vegas Totals

I have both of these games projecting to go over their totals, but Baltimore / Tampa actually projecting better. Tampa is projecting to win by 1 so maybe some value there on their players if the public thinks Baltimore wins but fails.

Defense vs Receivers

Tampa actually does look quite nice for passing situations. WR1 and pretty much everything else appears to be open. Baltimore TE looks promising for that Andrews play. Also noting that Quentin Johnston is out so Josh Palmer will likely see more play time in a decent spot.

Evans for Godwin is a spot that I never seem to get right, so make your own determination as to who the WR1 is in Tampa for tonight, but Godwin has about 10 more targets on the year over Evans for what its worth.

Optimizing Projections

This doesnt look playable on the surface but it gives an idea of the type of players who might end up in the optimal tonight. Pay up for TB? I think I will keep that stack tonight (2 from Tampa). Everything else is fair game and meant as plug and play.

Projections

These are my top 4 or 5 projected at each position. I find it interesting that Baker is projecting better than Lamar for me. Will it stay that way? Lets find out!

Leverage

Tonight's Leverage opportunity is brought to you by JK Dobbins. He is expected to run in 3 out of every 4 lineups which is quite heavy if true. I believe this is in part because he controls the backfield this week. But we must then ask the question: What if he fails? How does he fail? and what are the plays that are least likely to be in the JK Dobbins lineups?

1. Arizona Defense. This came up in the main article when I said I wouldnt touch that Washington defense personally but it was a factor. I believe AZ is a bit worse, BUT lets assume no one will play them because of the correlation of Dobbins and his own defense. If for some reason Herbert throws up a pick 6 or Dobbins fumbles even, that is opportunity for a swing in the leaderboard.

2. Herbert Stack: I saw Herbert projection is low so this is a bit less attractive surprisingly. However Herbert to Josh Palmer could be something that most of the Dobbins lineups wont do. He catches about 2 or 3 passes a game so that is 'something to leverage with.

3. Backup RB: Kimani Vidal- I imagine that most wont even know who he is but, if he is cheaper and vulchers a touchdown, you might not be so mad if you capture it. He shows up on the chart as a potential low owned value (12% projected ownership around 4K. To play something like this, it would also mean you are selling out to the fade of JK most likely and hoping he outright fails to be a top.

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Showdown: NY Jets vs Pittsburg Steelers Odds vs Salary

This chart is so lopsided with Adams joining the Jets. 4 players above the line and first Steeler is Najae Harris beneath it. It doesnt help that Wilson is QB for first game so we have no data to put him on the chart. The expectation is that the Steelers will lose by 2 pts anyways, in a low scoring matchup.

Defense vs Receivers

We can assume Adams will be WR1, but maybe this game it is still Wilson too. Either way, Pitt has been good against the primary WR. The RBs on both team might be able to catch passes out of the backfield today.

Pitt Stacks

None of the Steelers are showing as highly owned captain plays right now. If they pull an upset, just maybe theres a path here to winning. Najae might become interesting for captain on that note. Warren is also showing some value here in the flex.

NY Stacks

Breece Hall is looking to be the chalk at captain, which means I will try and find a way to avoid him for leverage purposes. It doesnt look like a good idea to do so because of his expected points per game so we may need a different angle tonight.

Summary:

Because these two teams both are bringing new (key) players into the fold, most of the expected points are somewhat out of the window as to what to expect tonight. I'm going with the team with the most Points left on the table -> Jets, and because of Breece being so popular, I am going to go against the grain a little more and take rodgers captain without Breece in the lineup.

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Last Updated: Sunday 10/20 9:15 AM CST

Main Slate Ceiling Finder

Updated: I underlined the plays that I could see picking up the ownership and then circled the plays that have similar workloads with low ownership towards the top. I couldnt find the WR with the most projected ownership.

Previous:

As we begin the main slate, I am pulling up the ceiling finder, to understand who has the ceiling in workload at each position. I circled the top plays for each, minus Kittle who is buried in there at 6K. Purdy and Hurts are the top QB's over the past 5 weeks with regards to usage and unrealized points. Nabers has a few less games in his averge so his position is likely not sustainable but we do know his workload is elite. Then we have a few RBs all stacking towards the expensive side of the chart. Ownership is stale right now but those percentages will update as we get closer to lock. For now, it is worth understanding who else is similar in workload but could go overlooked. This may become more obvious as we go position by position.

Vegas Projections

It appears that several games this week are projecting over 50 points, but those will also simply be chalk by design. The edge is in finding the games and teams who might exceed their expectations. This week, I only have 2 games in which the games project higher in Vegas than my sheet, which is intruiging (NY vs PHI and KC vs SF). If they underperform, those are areas in which chalk could get it wrong (if there is chalk in those games).

Summary of Situations

My trends that I try to use in building for the slate are on the left, following by the list of plays that qualify. Washington vs Carolina is going to be tough to get away from, despite the chalk, as Jayden and Dalton both look like they have solid QB situations ahead. Then I will also call out Walker at RB as Seattle rushing looks to be quite strong this week. The Raiders vs Rams game also looks intruiging for rushing, although when both teams have good rushing situations, that cold lead to the clock running out as well. I will refer to this potentially in the next section of positional targets.

QB

Updated:

This view filters out the QBs that do not have any leverage showing in my calculation. I circled the 4 that I think are the most interesting. 3 of them have a top projected WR to pair with.

Previous:

Updated: 6:35pm Andy Dalton is now starting to look quite interesting to me as I circle back. He is projecting sub 5% ownership, AND the top owned play is Chuba as of now. What if the game ends up where Carolina is trailing? This is direct leverage on Chuba that makes sense if it sticks. Diontae is getting the lions share of that work in the passing game so the stack is where I'm building my first GPP lineup. Maybe even the rookie included (maybe). Need to check Diontae's health though.

Now we have our QB list, and for now, I am leaving in the non leveraged plays in to show the full workload list. Daniels is the chalk so I circled him. Purdy appears to be a leverage play although going against a tougher defense. Nonetheless volume is more important than matchup at time. Several other cheap options at QB who might have pivot potential so I marked them, and then Richardson seems to be extremely low owned due to his time away so I could potentially like that.

RB

I circled the lowest of owned plays here again. Aaron Jones is projecting 19% owned, and showed up in my optimal, with leverage. I am unsure the real reason but I have to think he is still possibly OK chalk with his usage and potential. These other guys seem to be going overlooked. Mixon was overlooked last week too- not too much changed there.

Previous:

I circled the chalkiest play here with Hubbard but left everything else untouched. This is because there are several low owned pivots showing as of now. Value is likely tough to come by this week but I always believe that you have to get the RBs right to succeed in DFS. I do not see a reason to play Hubbard as of now, so that seems to be bad chalk. Walker is interesting, but will see how these guys project out at the end.

WR

Updated

Looks like Justin Jefferson is getting ownership despite the lack of value in playing him. He is a good play per projections in the game environment, but in a slate without a ton of value, it is odd to see folks chase him. Speaking of, Chase is sorta in the same boat, which is why Burrow ownership is down. A key difference though is that Darnold is showing as negative leverage, which points me to Aaron Jones over Darnold if playing that game, and then maybe you can get to Jefferson somehow. DK Metcalf looks to be single digits and in my top projections. Mooney is lingering out there too with Higgins.

Previous

I circled the two top projected owned WRs over 20%, but also left a few un-circled. We will need value and maybe it makes sense to get it from this position this week if folks are appearing to pay up at WR. Projections will help here, especially with the next chart. If these two names are not in the top spot, they are guys we may want to pivot off of.

Defense vs Receivers

Diontae happens to face the 31st ranked defense vs WR1, so theres that. However Drake London doesnt make sense to me so I will declare that as bad chalk right away. There are a few other WRs who project similar to Diontae although I have to think that game environment is great for him. Metcalf is interesting because we see a clear path to WR1 vs WR2 in this game, meaning one of the WRs ought to have a strong game for Seattle. If correlating this game to points, maybe Pitts is a great play as a pivot off of London ownership. I also see Kittle listed as a top TE option in the passing game for Purdy, as we go into the next position.

TE

Updated

In a game with a low total, the Chiefs still give up a bit to the TE position so I have to stick with Kittle as the top play. They are the home team, healthier and Jennings is out to help boost his priority up.

Interestingly, Kittle is in a great spot this week, as a pivot to both Kelce and Bowers, as he has more workload but less ownership. In addition, Jennings is out so that may be my lock play of the week if that stays like this. Ownership ought to change before lock though so check back on that. Many as of now are looking for value at this position with good reason usually, but this is not a position I like to eat chalk with.

Projections

The Eagles Offensive line is.. offensive. While Hurts had a decent game last week vs the Browns, they ended up in this spot last week as well, because of their blocking issues. They fortunately ended up giving up a blocked kick / return for a TD to give me the 10 points I was hoping for last week. The Giants re picking up a little ownership so I will give some attention to the Chiefs, Falcons and Browns/Bengals as well since there are some mismatches down there (with less focus on the Bengals and Browns game).

Anyone else in the projections are going in the player pool as I build the optimal lineup. I will have to mention CJ Stroud since I havent mentioned his name before now, as I feel like he could go off at the lowest ownership on the position, but a matching WR needs to be found.

Optimal

Optimal lineups are usually best to give you a baseline on how to build, but I will openly say that I will play it in cash as is. Then I will try and pivot for GPP purposes, but this is what things look like for now. Zach Ertz in the TE and Brock Wright both, are making an interesting case for double TE, whether or not it is going to be those two names. There are no stack rules with this optimizer so Geno without Metcalf is tilting. Maybe I'll swap him in somehow.

Experimental Sims

The lineup target points are down this week, to 204.97, so perhaps scoring wont be what we think? Either way, we will see what makes the most sense from a value perspective when we follow the estimated ranges. Note that with QB and TE, I try to stay within 300-500 salary range when building towards these recommendations. RB and TE are tricky because we have 2 and 3 spots that could fill in there, unless double TE is the move.

Heres the position to position sim odds for now. Some of these guys are in bad game environments like Pollard IMO and some are negatively leveraged like Chuba so keep those things in mind if building from these plays.

Lets Leverage

Chubba Hubbard is the top chalk so I will focus on him. Why is he chalk? The game environment is the highest on the slate and he is one of the cheaper of the guaranteed workloads at RB. I project that Carolina will score 3 times. However Hubbard is not one of my top projections at all so I will gladly pivot. The RB chart shows other options, but to truly leverage the field, we have to figure out what player or combo of players will benefit from Hubbard doing poorly?

1. Backup RB? -> I'm not high on the Carolina rushing game, although they do have some advantages in run blocking that could support a backup. However I just dont think the workload is there unless Hubbard gets hurt on the first series and Miles Sanders comes in. 0.5% ownership projected on him (but I'm not doing that).

2. Washington DST? -> I rely on my defensive projections to get to any defense and Washington is not on my top 5, SO, I dont think this is the play for me, but that is in the realm of possible.

3. Carolina passing game? Andy Dalton isn't in my top projected QBs, but Diontae Johnson is. He has one of the top potential point totals over the past 5 weeks and defense is weak against WR1s. I love this option because I also project Carolina to be trailing in this game, and therefore he should be busy if healthy. If we take this approach, we still need to get a low owned RB to pivot away from Hubbards 27% ownership. 2 candidates of interest - one will be in number 4, but David Montgomery is showing similar price point with 2% ownership in a high total game. The other is

4. Opposing RB -> Brian Robinson, who I do have projecting in my top 5 RBs. Most people don't play opposing RBs so he actually will give a great extra leverage piece if he goes off. In addition, if Robinson goes off, that means you are likely leveraging against another 19% of lineups with Jayden Daniels. Love this one too.

5. Game underperforms? -> I didnt check the weather but if the game doesnt reach its potential, Minn vs Det and Sea vs ATL are both viable team totals to target while fading this game entirely. If Diontae is out, I might go this route.

****************************Previous Showdown Content below here***********************

Updated: 6:00 CST

Showdown Situations vs Salary

For those seeing me for the first time, I am measuring the player's expected points (higher = more opportunity) over the past 5 weeks and their aligning those points to the player salaries (further right - more expensive) on this slate. Above the trend line means that there might be value per that player's workload. Kamara is the most expensive, highest owned, and highest expected points. Does that mean lock him in? Maybe, but I will not be doing so at captain if I can help it. Courtland Sutton is in an awkward overpriced spot, with half the ownership projected as both Bo and Kamara, making an opportunity for leverage right away.

Some other guys of interest -> Devaughn Vale is showing 6% owned but also decent expected points for 4K. I dont have a clue who he is but we will see his snap count and more detail soon. Then a wide range of cheap plays beneath him due to all the injuries. So far, not enough detail to take a stand on anything.

Vegas Projections

Here I am comparing lines to my own vegas projections to see if there is a team lean, and there is, with Denver. It looks like I project them to cover the spread and go over their projected total, and same for New Orleans, but perhaps we can feel good about Denver's opportunity of scoring 3 touchdowns (kinda), vs New Orleans potentially scoring 2. With so many replacement players, I should note that these totals do not factor in injuries.

Snap Counts

Over 6 weeks, these are the snap counts for each player on these teams. Shaheed's 57 snaps have to go somewhere else this week since he is out, and Olave was out last week, which gave Bob Means more snaps last week. Vele who I mentioned already typically hasn't played much but played 34 snaps last week, which is interesting. The Saints WRs are all over the place still. Lets see if we can find advantages in the defenses.

Defense vs Receivers

None of the Saints receivers are in a good spot necessarily, but several are likely to hit value, which make it difficult. Kamara is the best option but the most obvious option. Denver will get a hole at WR2 which projects to be Humphrey.

From the defensive perspective, Denver allows passes on the right side and deep more often than anywhere else. That means we would like a WR from the saints on the left side of the offense. The Saints defense will give up most of their work to the right side of the Denver offense, in short passes, as the left side of their defense has been the weakest. I'll mention that Surtain is out so that means they will have more holes than that possible.

When the Saints have the ball:

Update: While the protection isnt really there for the Saints, I think the Broncos suck enough to play 2 opposite looks. Kamara is the uber chalk. Rattler is the pivot point though at captain. The kicker and defense sorta follow him while Means and Tipton both have value in the flex. a 4-2 in case the Saints surprise could be worth while in large fields.

Updated: We have a little more clarity. I mean if you go Kamara at captain, you better go max leverage at flex, where Means and Tipton live. tipton has some points left on the table but Means probability of hitting value are a little higher. Infact, if I stack 4 Saints, I think you have to take Rattler, Tipton, and then decide Williams or Cedric Wilson, and then topped with Kamara. Saints defense is in the mix there too in a world where Denver sucks (and they do).

Kamara's usage has been over 40% of the offense over the last 5 weeks, which is extreme. almost 40% of the lineups playing him will have him at captain as of now. That is extremely difficult to find leverage on. What if he fails tonight? It will be either because Denver defense clamped him up or because Rattler and some WR or TE or backup RB go off. First time all year a team only had one viable captain play and that being the Defense. I'm not sure I will try a construction like this although this might be a good game to do so if ever. Also keep an eye on the points left on the table chart for potential names that could excel.

When the Broncos have the ball:

Based on points left on the table, this game and 4 man stack should belong to the Broncos IMO. Nix, Sutton and Williams make for a good little mini stack. I may run some 20 max looks with that and see what happens. Broncos defense is also in play in the event the Saints suck with a new QB and 2 new starting WRs. Not to mention, I expect the Broncos to absolutely own in pass pressure, which might limit scoring in New Orleans.

Bo Nix is currently showing as a decent captain, or one of his running backs. The ownership on all the Broncos is significantly lower than Kamara's so I'd say I will take a shot on one of the names listed for top captain leverage, paired with 3 names from the chart below. Humphrey and Vale were mentioned and both currently carry good leverage in the flex.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Showdown

Just dumping a few charts in for this since it starts in a few hrs. Looking for ceiling and value workloads. Brenton Strange is 3% projected, and I see Gibson at 10% ownership as well. Both are backups but worth mentioning spaces where no one is going. Also hoping to fade the highest owned captain play, whether its Trevor or Maye.

Defense vs Receivers

I have both teams possibly feeding into the over 41 points so the over I'm definitely on. New England passing looks like a stronger play than Jacksonville passing game. RB + WR looks stackable for Jacksonville while just about everything is open for New England.

Snap Counts

It appears that Kendrick Bourne has been coming into the game in the past 2 weeks. Last week he almost played all the snaps so perhaps he is an under the radar play today for cheap.

When NE has the ball/stack:

There is a consolidated list of possible captains. Douglass would be my preferred captain here. Stevenson also has quite high usage in the offense but is showing more value in flex than captain for leverage. Hunter Henry also looks like a nice flex piece.

When JAX has the ball/stack:

Browsing this, Engram has value at captain for leverage, but seems the kicker and backup RB have more value for leverage. Not everything has to have leverage to be played but just pointing out where most is. Also with all of the points left on the table on both sides, I could see this being a 3-3 stack possibly, although I prefer 4-2 when possible.

It is difficult to tell who will actually be low owned, but Lawrence and Drake are neck and neck with the captain ownership. I will fade at least one of the two and it is likely to be Drake since Trevor has a better passing environment. If Drake fails, it is likely because the running game is taking points from him, so that makes Stevenson more interesting.

******************************Main Slate Review********************************************

Tough week no matter how I slice it. The scores were down and despite pivoting off some of the chalk correctly, that landed me in the fire pits anyways. Will break this into 3 sections; What happened, What worked (as much as possible) and What didnt work out

What Happened?

Optimal score was way down this week, an overlooked Josh Allen stack was optimal and the Detroit vs Minn mini game stack would have worked out, meaning that ultimately was the game to stay targetted on. The remaining Browns receivers gained in value with Cooper gone, and Barkley got to the optimal in a revenge narrative.

Milli Maker ($10)

The highest scoring lineup built this week was actually in the quarter arcade, 201 pts - which I wont review here, but 2nd highest lineup was in this milli maker at 185.36 pts. I do believe that this specific game stack was foreseeable. Love the leverage off of Juju chalk to Kareem Hunt, with Hardman who has historically had his best games vs the 49ers. Gibbs being there is a bit tilting for me, because I went Montgomery thinking he was way underowned -> but never thought to build some Gibbs in, the top overall scorer on the slate. Nonetheless, this continues to be a contest with the overall top scoring winner and yet a minimal ROI for not getting to 1st so I'm thinking I'll play it less often.

Milli Maker #2 ($100)

Geno to Metcalf was also reachable, especially with St Brown as both were in my optimal lineup. We mentioned Gibbs, but also shoutout to Mixon who went underowned 2 weeks in a row. 2 wild parts to this lineup: 1. The commanders DST ends up being in this lineup with 16 pts. When I spok about pivoting, it was an option mentioned that I chose not to take (#2 in the leverage section), but in a contest like this, perhaps it made a ton of sense to try it at least once. Also shout out to this guy for winning $1,000,000 with a chalky 0 at WR. Thats wild. I also see that double TE panned out this week so nice to see that was predictable.

What went well?

The sims section was quite the guide this week. Right where you needed to be to win all the contests on the slate (204 pts) and then the top 2 QBs mentioned are in both of the milli maker winners (Geno and Darnold). I think I filtered the TE spot too tight this week since we needed 2 TEs in most entries to do well for value. Zach Ertz was on the other side of that filter as the top option.

Projections did their work as well:

The optimizer tried to get us here, but JJ was tough on the value. Otherwise I got no complaints here. What I just realized is that Brian Robinson paired with Washington DST would have been cool to correlate. Dang!

I also think the pivot and leverage section went well, even though my choices were like the optimal worst. I left it all in tact so you can see the thought process that I'm fully sticking with in hopes of landing on the other side of the coin.

What failed?

My opinion did this week. Trusting in Dalton was a huge mistake on my part, as it has been since I started playing DFS. This is where having multiple entries is so important for a player like me. If I play out all these scenarios, it isn't quite the same as just playing 150 and hoping things stick. The pivots were in line for some special things if they worked out. I definitely feel like I got a bit unlucky when saying i'd take door number 3 instead of door number 2. Door 4 and 5 was also pretty legit had I stuck with them.

Also I will call out that my top DST failed this week. Little did I realize, they were the chalk DST, and theres nothing I hate doing more in a lineup, than playing a chalk DST. They started strong and even finished with 5 sacks, but not pivoting off the top chalk DST also buried the Barkley lead.

Hope these reviews help in determining what we might do next week!