NFL Week 8 Odds, Leverage and Analysis of the Draftkings GPP Slates - October 2025

Building a lineup isn't far off from building a lottery ticket when you really think about it. Instead of pick-6, we are playing pick-9 on a weekly basis. Yet we are only competing for 1 million dollars, because the odds of us getting there are much better than you might think.

I'm convinced now that the data in my posts actually lead to winning plays, but now its time to shift focus into how to build winning lineups. Last Monday, I had a detailed post of what I saw in review and eventually saw patterns that literally lead to the same thing I've seen week in and out in review. It is wild in hindsight that we didnt finish atop of some leaderboards even, and it is comparable to the lottery when you think about why that pays so much more than DFS. In the lottery, you pick your first number, and then you still have to pick 5 other numbers that could be anything. In DFS, we tend to do that too, picking our first play (QB?) and then we still have all these options to choose from. I am going to challenge you to build from the inside out this week, as that is where most of the GPP upside comes from anyways.

As usual, I am starting the week with repeatable charts up top and will continue to grow the page with insights at the bottom - or on an X thread, so follow both! And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.

Week 7 Player Workload

The first thing I am continuing to do is understanding who is on the slate and who has put in the work without the rewards (like me). In the top left, there are a few QBs that have are expecting to exceed their averages at some point based on their workload and opportunity, but this is just to remember who is there. More importantly, how are players filling in the chart, above the salary trend line. CMC stands tall over everyone else at a hefty price, followed by a list of QBs. Jonathan Taylor looks like he is set to bust at his price point soon, although he is consistently putting up the touchdowns. The week where the touchdowns disappear is when I think he fails but predicting that week will be tough. Ceedee just got back so his workload isn't truly measured here over the past 5 weeks. The cheap end is once again filed with TEs, and vaguely some cheap WR options who might flash here and there. We have an idea of the 'who' at this point that we can refer back to as needed.

Vegas Odds

This chart has two halves, the Vegas lines and then my adjusted lines.  Original purpose was to see where I was over and under the Vegas total in hopes of gaining an edge, but last week I realized that this is what I should likely focus on:

My sweet spots:

• Medium totals (43-48 points)

• Defensive battles (<40 points)

• Large spreads (blowouts)

Defer to Vegas when:

• Total >50 (shootout risk)

• Very close spreads (<3 points)

• Large discrepancies suggesting injury/weather

Starting Point

When I go back and do my reviews, I actually start here, so why not do the same here again, with more intention. The top 5 teams I projected are INdy, Dnever, KC, Chicago, and Cincinatti this week (Thurs through Monday). If those teams are successful at getting the highest scores and they are to win, I believe that they will prioritize running the ball if the defense is weak in that space. That is whether garbage time or throughout the game. Indianapolis being up there is extremely dangerous because of Jonathan Taylor's long streak of killing it. However on a week where folks are going to be mixing and matching their studs, this seems like a legit starting point to pencil in a name.

Next up? Denver gets Dallas and therefore Javante Williams is my 2nd most favorite RB instantly. The cost of these two is likely high so my lineup might be favoring value WRs and TEs at this point. Kansas City plays on MNF so we may see Hunt or Pacheco (who I played last week) get touted up on showdown. I see paths for both Chicago and Cinci to run the ball as well, but the teams with a potential boost (aka the RB algorithm) suggest Atlanta (as if Bijan needed a boost), Baltimore, and Carolina. This week will be a bit more tricky at RB than I anticipated for runners, so fortunately we will have more clarity when main slate narrows this field.

Start with the WR

Back to the lottery analogy, when you pick your first number, what if you could for sure pull in a 2nd number as a result? Stacking is how we get there in GPP, and there are all types of stacks. However not all stacks give you that type of clarity. If I start my stack with say Justin Herbert, that may narrow down one of my spots a lil bit to the 2nd, and yet still leave me choosing between 4-5 of his potential recieving options with potential and hopefully leverage. Thats just not good enough. What if we start the stack with Keenan Allen due to his situation/projection? If he hits, theres a high chance Justin Herbert is the 2nd spot to hit with him (which literally happened last week), yet most people will build that stack the hard/opposite direction. This is my WR scoring system on the week, and from what I can see right away, it is Drake London is going to be one of my top WRs with that target share and projection score. I may also get back to Chris Olave or Zay Flowers as well, although their target shares are a lil smaller than I'd hope. This also means I'm considering Pen..Cousins, Rattler and even Lamar.. I mean Huntly stacks this week (aka these injuries suck!).

Defense vs Recievers

This chart will come in handy all week for finding holes in the defense so just going to set it here. Value WRs are the ideal item I choose from this view and it feels like we may need some this week.

Early Projections

This is our first look at projections this week. Lots will change between the slates so obviously we will return for the main slate. But for now, I'm going to prepare the showdown slate for twitter.

**************Main Slate Chalk Expectations**************

There are injuries everywhere.. even in this lineup. This is what I see if i try and build a lineup with the most ownership possible. In a normal year, I'd be avoiding all this and trying to go rogue in the milli, but in today's era of tools, data and general wisdom of the crowd, it has to be played more like NBA, where we know the chalk is good for a reason. So my first intuition here is to find plays that make sense at RB, maybe one at WR or TE, and then replace the stack (Bo Nix + 1 or 2) with something that only you think makes sense in a large field. Granted Bo Nix vs Dallas is going to be tough to beat with his usage against a terrible defense. I also rather take my top defense vs the chalk -> which I tend to beat at a high rate.

Updated:

This is how the most owned lineup now looks, a stack, browns dst, secondary stack and double te?

The optimal:

Based on projections, this is the difference and how my projections lay things out. Maybe some part to keep and some need to be swapped out to make a playable lineup.

Top Projections Per Position

I have done some tweaking here to hopefully boost certain plays based on situations around them. QB for example, now has a WR score, which is the average of my WR scoring system. Bo Nix and Hurts appear to have good WR situations in general which makes them appear higher on my list than usual. Josh Allen is the lowest owned of my top QBs so that is something to watch for too. Carolina vs Buffalo is interesting because of Josh Allen having a run back that isnt picking up a lot of steam, with a QB that I think can be played solo. That is important context to come next.

WR favors DeVonta without AJ in the lineup, but that is quite the high owned stack to start a lineup with, even if pairing with Goedert, as he is over 20% owned too. Chase looks to be projected high but a lower score than I want to target so hes my first man out of the single entry GPP I'm building. Olave just blew up last week, and George Pickens .. now has to share with Ceedee .

Defense wise, none of my top 5 are over 10% owned so all in play. With the Eagles being the chalk DST, we should watch for cases where Giants players stand out as thats a ladder opportunity vs the 10% of lineups. So now that we have initial thoughts, lets peek ahead at the big picture.

Summary of Situations

As far as I can see, the top 5 team totals could be the top 5 shown here, and all 4 of them have good rushing totals in order. Indianapolis actually leads the way and just because JT isn't top chalk at RB, I'm inclined to select him first, with a slight concern of Daniel Jones actually throwing some of his touchdowns or QB sneaking one of em now that I decide to play him.

Surprisingly, Atlanta isnt necessarily the 'best' play as I initially expected in this system, although it is certainly a good play still. Chicago could be a better play. I hate seeing Chicago on my charts because of their QB. He is holding that team back. I wont say his name because.. I'm tired of watching that dude let down with all the talent around him, and I'm not even a Bears fan. But Swift, is someone I might take over Bijan or with him, depending on how things lay out with WR.

WRs that Matter

OK so after last week, I pointed out that I saw something relevent. It was because of this chart so hear me now, I am going to ensure that all my lineups contain at least 2 of the following: London

Flowers McMillian Olave Robinson Devonte

I'mma come back to this post on Monday morning and say "I tried to tell you" (unless they suck, in which I pretend I didnt just say that :D). Because we now know who the alpha WRs are in the system, we can do a process of ranking/elimination for the single entry folks. The score is actually their true rank, but itd be ideal to stick with game environments that make sense (high team totals, opposing team in similar situations etc).

Kirk Cousins is likely starting so I don't know what that means for London. Tyler Huntley is starting so I dont know what that means for Flowers. Andy Dalton is starting so I dont know what that means for McMillian. So we have Spencer Rattler, Jaxon Dart (who shot out with Bo Nix last week), and Jalen Hurts who shot up the place last week. One is chalk. So now we will hope that one of those names is the optimal QB this week, although things are clearly compromised thanks to 3 new QBS out of the 6. Nonetheless, onto the positional!

QBs

I mentioned earlier that there are 6 WRs that I like this week, and therefore we must carry that into the QB chart as they go hand in hand with how we build our stacks. I ran my sims and found that 5600 range is once again the sweet spot for QBs, yet the QBs in the range are not that sweet looking. I underlined the 3 playable names in that range, with the idea in mind that we may need up to 38 pts from the position. Caleb should have that level of upside if he didn't suck. Infact, his expectations are not far from Hurts on the left scatterplot, but less owned. The problem though is, if we were to start with the QB, we would land on him and then force one of the top WRs with him. Thats just backwards. So after reviewing the WRs that I like vs their QBs, I did find a Jaxon Dart play who is 1. low owned, 2. has upside in rushing and passing 3. Has an opposing WR who might be able to do things as well, with Devonte Smith, which naturally creates 2 stack paths, depending on if we want a TE involved or not. There are other notable situations with super cheap QBs that have WRs in good spots, but it is more of a risk involved without knowing how much they trust those QBs.

RBs

The field is definitely interested in overpaying for RB productivity. They are top RBs in good spots, but I believe they are actually overpriced. If they dominate the scoring for the week, that may not matter so I will underline their place and show some options. One interesting thing is that CMC is half the ownership of Jonathon Taylor, who I did mention has the potential to bust IF one week he doesn't put up the 3 touchdown game. I will say that Daniel Jones is in a good spot to make passing plays this week vs Tennessee, so we can't feel great about that chalk. However I am playing JT in some lineups, will pivot some to CMC who is matchup proof, and will mix in Swift and maybe Cam Skattebo, who both are projecting little ownership.

It is important to remember that RB is a position to eat some chalk, because its the most predictable position out there. Bijan may be the one in that lineup for that reason

WRs

Chase is atop of this chart in opportunity, but also in ownership, potentially on the slate. The interesting part is that Ceedee and Pickens are both close to nothing in ownership. I will say that when revisiting the chalk lineup, Chase and Devonta Smith were in it, and so to take 'some' chalk, maybe one of the two could be viable. However when I look at my WR scoring system, Pickens is in the qualified range, which in part due to Ceedee being out. I could see one or the other doing well. Olave and London are both sitting in the value zone of normal ownership.

WRs vs Recievers

One name I have to also mention is Marvin Mims, as he could go for a deep touchdown in this matchup where we think Bo Nix could be a top play.

TEs

I overlayed my TE scoring system intentionally. This is national TE day tomorrow and we expect lots of them to score points. I will say that the popular ones are in good spots (Schultz and Goddert) due to increased expected workload. The chalk build is double TE and I'm not ruling that out. The two actual top TEs, are Ferguson (losing targets) and Warren and neither in priced well and therefore are underowned, but they are pretty elite looking vs some cheap WRs. I will likely play the 5 I underlined in some capacity.

Stacks

Looking at where defense gives up the points, there is an opening for Darius Slayton (assumed WR2) with Dart so that is something else to consider. Michael Pittman also in a good spot which doesnt hold well for JT as a double stack could do well if you think Tennessee could put up some points. Both Chase and Higgins are in good spot for Flacco. Finally no one should be in the way of success for Cousins.

Sims Insights (under construction)

For the main slate, I'm taking a look at who is flagged as leverage, top stacks and games to target. I Dart and Stevenson both stand out to me, as the Patriots defense rank in my top 5 defenses this week, while New England is in my 2nd team to get an RB boost. Lazard, Chase and Mims all could be candidates due to their game environments, and then any of those TEs have reason to be considered as well. I will say that the Dart to Wandale stack did not sim out in my top stacks very well and that is surprising so I may proceed with caution there.

Games going Underowned

I think the Cincinatti vs Jets game is tricky because neither defense can stop anybody, but in this case one offense should be in good shape while the other is filled with backups. That is likely inflating the projections there on my end. I'm also expecting a low scoring blowout win for New England over Cleveland, but the Browns players have become so cheap they are naturally value (Njoku, Jeudy, etc), thus showing up in more lineups than they probably should. I believe Schultz and CMC are bringing up the Houston vs SF stack potential, but with a low game total, that is not something I can see myself investing in a ton.

Pivot Positions

Injuries cant stop wont stop.. Now that we have London out, Bijan has shot up to the top owned play on the slate. I will not fade RB chalk in good spots, which he is. The trick is to see if someone can outscore him on a price per dollar and if so, who would do that today?

Chase is staying up top with Smith as well, followed by Jonathan Taylor who could also face some issues by his own passing game. Dalton Schultz is the cheap chalk at TE that I'm ok with. The guy who I am prepared to fade up top is ...Derrick Henry! Lets look closer below at the newest highest owned lineup:

First, my top DST projection went to the Bears, who are 100 cheaper than the chalky and bad Bengals DST for leverage. If I play them, I get rid of Huntley and Henry both assuming that the Bears get ahead. A direct pivot to Henry is Swift, at 100 cheaper than Henry. I then still have a big chunk of chalk showing with those two stackable pivots.

That leaves us a QB which we can pair to one of our WRs (Rattler, Chase, Smith) but I dont really like that double Eagles stack without Hurts. So either we find salary to get to Hurts or we drop someone like Devonte or Chase down to one of the given WRs above. It fits so well that this is the pivot angle I like the most. I will also say that at 50% ownership, Bijan can be pivoted to Jonathan Taylor, my top RB or CMC in a tougher matchup for way less ownership, but way more usage in general. They all have upside but if your upside is lower owned, then you have a shot at first.

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