PGA DFS - Charles Schwab Challenge - Odds Leverage and Draftkings Pivot Plays May 2025

Last week was surprisingly the week for all things leverage. Avoid Rory, get on Rahm/Bryson/even Scheffler and you likely made money. Normally I love getting different up top, and so this week will be quite the challenge with one price tag sticking out like a sore thumb. Hopefully as we go chart to chart, we figure out where to stick that sore thumb.

Odds vs Situations

The scatterplot and even the tables beneath are pretty much saying yes, play Scheffler. In a league of his own coming into this week and no one is near him. The only way he appears to fail is if perhaps 3 guys in the 9K range all score top 5 while the cheap tier busts. However none of them are showing up with value. Scheffler is projecting 56% ownership at that price is quite insane but the question is going to be whether you go even with the field, or all in on him, as a full fade seems to be out of the question on the surface.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

The only 3 in this field who have played well enough for wins this season are shown here. Spaun actually not quite there but relatively close, and likely relies on a course fit to get there.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This is a good course for those who can drive accurately, putt well, but not necessarily getting the distance required for the majors, as the course is on the shorter side of the spectrum, with relatively more narrow fairways. So perhaps the lower tier talent do stand out a bit this week. Last year Scheffler tied 2nd to Bradley, who both went -9 to Riley at -14, so perhaps not a ton of safe holes and preventing bogeys may be as important as scoring, seeing that most of the top 5 golfers were in single digit bogeys last year.

SG last 4 years @ Charles Schwab

Scheffler has gained more strokes than anyone over his rounds here, but we can also see names like Kirk and Kurt for cheap with some history here.

2025 Performance (T2G)

Just looking at tee to green and skipping over Scheffler, a couple names stand out for me. Smalley stands out as the cheapest up top for those gaining strokes across the board for under 8K, which is the range with the most options to choose from this week. Spaun who was mentioned earlier seems to have some issues around the green so that may be tough to stomach this week.

Underowned but Optimal

When it comes to the lineups I build, this chart is a big factor for me. This week is a bit tilted thanks to Scheffler. That pushes a few plays to the 7K range that stand out with less than expected ownership. I see Smalley is up there, whom I usually dislike playing but may give him a few shots this week.

Draftkings Salary Range Pivots

10K+ - with only two names above 10K I will say both are playable this week so I wont bother with posting that range.

9K-10K

Kinda surprised but Daniel Berger is picking up some ownership in projections. Maybe he comes in lesser owned but he does have the highest ceiling and odds in this range. He also was 2nd in T2G on performance in this field so I guess there's merit to it. Rai, Hideki and McIntyre all otherwise look intriguing from an ownership perspective. I just don't see much reason to get here otherwise.

8K

The top 4-6 names on this list all seem valid as having higher odds and ceilings but not quite pulling the ownership you would expect. Si woo has the top odds, and ceiling but the most ownership here is going to Brian Harman. He's a fade candidate for me so I hope he misses cut.

7K

There are a few names here with decent odds and ceilings, starting with Gerard. He appears to be the highest owned in the range though so I will pass on him and hope for the best. Greyserman and then Smalley are next up in ceilings so I guess I'm saying that Smalley is going to be booming or busting my lineups this week.

6K

Kinda like I mentioned last week on twitter, only one name stands out in the 6K range to me which makes that range really dicey, but if going there, maybe Takuni does it for someone. Especially when paying up for Scheffler it may be needed but going to hit that area too often.

I hope to do one more update this evening or early morning so check back for updates here and on twitter!