PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Genesis Scottish Open - July 2025

I just woke up at an awkward time to realize that the next pga tournament is over seas, with a 1am start time so figure I better get this started as we have 24 hours to figure this out.

Updated 7PM

Odds and Situations

First look at the salary distribution vs the odds and we can immediately see that Scheffler is back. His odds are going to stay atop all year due to his domination all year, but his optimal percentage is something we have to watch for due to his price, especially when he projects top ownership at the top price. Rory remains on an island too, and then we drop to Fleetwood at about half the ownership of Scheffler, which makes a slight pivot available off the top priced golfers potential if building a balanced lineup. He does have 3 top 10s showing in my initial pull of history as well. The cheap side is quite crowded in pricing so perhaps that is where most lineups bust.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

Only one person remaining on this chart that does not have a win while gaining enough strokes to have one by now. I dont know if he actually gets one this year but I will continue to play him in hopes that he figures it out (at low ownership).

Core but Leverage

This list hasn't hit too well lately but I will post it anyways, as these guys show good history and odds for success but relatively lower ownership.

Lineup Targets

If you knew how many points your lineup needed to compete for first, what are you going to do to ensure you get a lineup with a chance to reach that score? I am projecting that tournament winners will have a score around 560-640 this week. There aren't a whole lot of golfers projecting over 100 pts in upside, but all of these names are in range of top scoring potential.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Looking at this plot, the only thing that stands out is the driving distance as a key driver in how the strokes are gained. After diving in a little more, it may not be the case. 🏌️‍♂️ What Type of Golfer Fits This Course?

1. Elite Mid-to-Long Iron Players

• The longest par-3s (holes 9, 12, 17, 18) all play 200+ yards, with small average scoring margins. Players who can hit long irons to the right sections of the green will avoid costly bogeys.

2. Ball Strikers Over Bombers

• Only three par-5s. This minimizes distance advantage.

• Many challenging 475–505 yard par-4s → demands precision from tee to green, not just raw power.

3. Short Game & Bogey Avoidance

• Bogeys: 1,122, more than 5 times the number of birdies.

• Players who avoid bogey (especially on holes 2, 7, and 18) gain big.

• Holes like 7 and 18 challenge driving accuracy and approach control.

4. Scoring Opportunists

• Must capitalize on holes 3, 5, and 16.

• These are birdie/eagle chances — missing here will cost players. This course is one of the top 5 tougher courses for putting when within 5 feet of the hole, so that is something I would absolutely pay attention to (putting skill).

Course History (SG)

The past 4 years of history indicate who has gained the most strokes here. I am looking at the guys who take less risk and play more strategic golf as those who contend at this type of course. That actually makes the Fleetwood pivot more interesting. That is only if his ownership stays down, but I suspect it is the number 1 contender to rise from 16% to say 21 or 22% by tee time. I also think Morikawa also becomes interesting as a result as long as they minimize bogeys. Then there is also Xander, who isnt priced so crazily, and is gaining a ton of strokes putting on this surface. Of the top guys, there is reason to go to him and hope he top 5 finishes here, even over Fleetwood.

Last Year's Optimal

Interesting that Morikawa made it, and Robert Macintyre won it (hometown hero). All 6 in the optimal scored over 100 pts with no real chalk actually hitting in the optimal. 684 was the top lineup built last year in this contest.

Optimal with Odds Value

Theres about 6 names that stand out as far as potentially underowned, but optimal. Fleetwood looks like the type who projects under-owned but ends up 5% higher than projected come lineup lock. 5 of these names have the upside to get in the optimal, if our projected range is good.

Updated 7pm:

Slight shifts and a few new names popped up. When Scheffler is on the board, there are 3 ways to build. One where you skip the mid range and load up on the cheap end of the scatter plot, one where you skip him and take the pivot (Fleetwood or Xander it seems), or one where you take Scottie + a top guy and go deep diving. Thats how I would play a 3 max anyways. Not sure I see a path to Rory.

Just updated a few positions but lets break this down even further to the larger field.

Added the highest owned guys by projections here. Unfortunately the are mostly the top odds on the chart too, except when we get to Fitzpatrick and Aberg level. It seems that there is a potential to pivot here. I noticed the 8K range is struggling to bring any leverage aside from Conners and JJ Spaun, which makes Spaun someone I will strongly consider based on his value.