PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026

Last week, had a decent breakthrough with a handful of charts aligning well. Then got too cute and swapped 1 play out of my lineup at 2am, which cost me roughly a top 20 finish in the Sand trap when taking out Nico who won for Kevin Yu. That tells me that this data post has potential to land a big win without 150 max entries. Lets see what we have this week.

Odds and Situations

The field size is down to 72 this week and Scottie Scheffler is part of that field, which makes for a tough decision right away, play him, the chalk at 14k? Or pivot away for a bit more balance? His ownership has been over projected since the start of the year, and so it is difficult to suggest he actually gets 30% on a week without a cut. However he has strong course history here. Si Woo is the least owned of the top names, next to Xander so maybe one of them becomes the pivot. Cheap end points to Keith Mitchell who I played last week with success. His upside also checks out next to Gerard and Hojgaard/Thorbson for the top spots.

Course Fits (datagolf)

It appears that driving overall is a big key here, with course history also playing a factor in success. I'll probably take a look at T2G + approach to see where the field has done well this season so far.

Performance + Expected Wins

Based on price, Ryan Gerard appears to be quite the value in those stats s well as in the expected wins chart. Gonna hope he and a few other cheap plays pan out this week.

Strokes Gained - Last 5 Years

Scottie has quite the edge on the next closest golfer in terms of SG at this course. It appears that the average golfer is losing strokes in t2g, off the tee, approach and putting, with t2g and OTT seem to show the biggest gains, next to putting, so we likely want plays that excel in all 3 spaces.

Top GPP Value Plays

Taking 5 names out of the list and converting them to value plays based on their ownership. We want the upper left plays as they indicate a high ceiling and low ownership. Patrick Rodgers and Matt McCarty will give you even less ownership up there so I wouldnt rule them out of contention.

Boom Bust Pairings from Sims

Starting with Scottie Scheffler's pairings, I see Spaun as the top guy here, but not seeing a ton of other names stand out so far that have already caught my eye.

Ryan Gerard:

Looking at one of the top value guys, we start to see much more opportunity. Bradley, Xander all float with him

Si Woo

Min Woo

A much shorter list of names but a few that have merit so i am bulding one lineup around these guys too.

The key here is finding the right name to target in the boom bust tool and then matching up the names who boom with him, assuming value plays are tied to it with high ceilings. Good luck!