PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for the John Deere Classic Draftkings Tournaments July 2025

This is a weaker field as it pertains to names on tour, and so we will get some new names in the top 10 of this tournament no doubt.

Odds vs Situations

Ben Griffin has the clearcut top odds to win here, and then we get sorta a weird crunch of names in the 7K range. That's not good as it means we will likely see that price range produce some busts as well.

Core but Leveraged

Only name to hit this list this week is Alex Smalley with a top 10 and sub 10% ownership.

Expected vs Actual Wins

Only Ben on the list, and he has won twice on low expectations in his wins. I wont be surprised if he does not win this tournament, but at the same time, no one has played better than him in this field this year.

Course Fits (datagolf)

I see the strongest differentiator here is driving accuracy, as a skillset players likely need to succeed this week over others. Turns out it is easier to score on par 3s here than usual which may be why around the green and scrambling doesn't stand out in this case. It is easy for birdies to rack up and we will see that in last year's optimal.

Recent Form

The top 8 guys have shown the most top finishes recently and as you can see, it gets really choppy after that, with most golfers only having 1 top 15 in the past 5 tournaments. That leans towards a bit more variance in the results expected this week.

Last 4 Years SG History

Interestingly, Sungjae seems to be much better than the rest of the field here in terms of strokes gained overall. Seamus Power seems to be one of the top scorers here. Day, Ghim and Si Woo all stand out for bogey avoidance while still averaging many birdies in their rounds here.

Target vs Fade

Just a quick look at something I am going to start tracking on. I believe your lineup this week should shoot for scores that average 117 per golfer in your lineup. Ideally each slot will have the ability to score 101 at minimum but its about averages to make the salary work. Therefore the bottom 3 guys are all guys I will likely fade entirely- as they expected double digit ownership yet have a low chance of hitting that number. That includes last week's winner. Michael Thorbjornsen is also quite highly owned when there are others around him that can do better for less ownership.

Optimal and Underowned Value vs Birdies

For those who ranked highest in total birdies this year on the right - I circled top 5 in addition to my chart on the left to help highlight the stronger plays. Still wanna go deeper into how they have played in the past couple tournaments but this is how things are shaping out. Ben Griffin likely balloons up in ownership before the contest as he is def the strongest projectable play in all predictive measurements.

If time permits I'll post more updates here so check back!