PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for the Memorial - 2025

I am just putting out a few nuggets this week, with the no cut event, as my internet connection isn't going to allow for much in terms of updates anyways. I will post my primary charts as usual that I use to make decisions.

Odds and Situations vs Salary

Scheffler is going to be a problem whether you play him or don't. Cant fade with confidence and you cant win a tournament with just him. His salary makes it very difficult if any of the 2nd tier show up. I think they are projecting decent ownership so that makes it interesting to just screw it and go up top with the ownership while the cheap guys get overlooked. If ownership projections are off though, this can backfire heavily.

Core but Leveraged Plays

No cut events bump up the odds for many plays. Mac Hughes is the one that I am going to hope for the best with.. low ceiling but low ownership play to pair with Scheffler potentially. He only made 1 cut in the past 5 tournaments, but with a no cut event, at least we dont have to worry about that unless he WDs.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Accuracy off the tee is more important than driving distance here, along with every other stat. It is however a long course, so the technical golfers are going to strive here.

History

Strokes gained totals are how I sort this and I see a few expensive players have led the pack here, likely due to the type of event this is. One intruiging build might be to build something with a 2nd expensive play like Thomas/Morikawa/Cantlay, even though the value isnt therewith their odds. I am sure I will try it once, which forces tons of 6K players (likely a disaster).

Underowned but Leveraged

I circled the guys that I think make the most sense from a leverage perspective. I could have also added Si Woo to this list but didn't for now, as I am unsure of wanting both Spaun and Si Woo together as one or the other likely blow up in ownership.

Guys I'm fading and rooting against

I am not fading any of these due to course fit or unfit, but rather just an ownership play. Sometimes its worth fading the top owned plays on the slate while others its just about avoiding the key plays that might pigeon hole the lineup. These are the top contenders for that, and I hope none of them top 5 (or really.. top 10s). McCarthy might be the scariest of this list due to his course history.

Last Year's Optimal

One thing about last year that stands out is that it was very much salary efficient, using all the salary up. Scheffler won and seemingly panned out in the optimal despite his high price, thanks to 2 6K salaries. Stars and scrubs could work again but it will be even tighter in the low owned range to make it work.

Updated View 3:50am

I am going to hope at least 3 of these circled guys end up relevant this week. The salary ranges are all a bit difficult with the skewed pricing, but I suspect also that one of the 3 un-circled end up optimal.

Optimal

This comes out as my optimal lineup. Perhaps this is what I will play in some double ups and a single entry GPP. If you think it makes sense, I recommend it in cash as it fits the build for last year's optimal.

Good luck if I cant get another update later!