PGA Leverage versus the RBC Heritage Field on Draftkings DFS Tournaments April 17th 2025

Last week was profitable without playing Rory, which is amazing considering that he won as the most popular golfer in tournaments. I imagine if Rory had come in 2nd or even worse, missed cut, I'd have moved up even better, and thats the beauty of playing for leverage. You play for leverage or you play for nothing (unless youre playing cash games.. you can play for those too hah). I reactivated my data subscriptions for the month so I hope to get the next 3-4 weeks of data going to see if we can keep a profit training going.

Wednesday Night Updates!

Ownership is getting closer, and if I wake up at 4am I will hopefully get final touches out in time but no promises there, as its 4AM. Now in the previous notes I pulled this data already and just wanted to compare again with updated amounts. This is where I build my core. Infact I will zoom in on the top chart first. The ideal setup will include 3-4 guys on the left table, 1-2 guys in the value chart (2nd table), 2-4 guys in the leverage table (3rd table), and in this case, history is OK but not a requirement, as it is less predictive of future results at this course.

Core Plays

I circled the names that stuck out the most to me from multiple angles. From optimal, history, and leverage, we can actually hone in on where I'm going to build my core. Infact I will give you my top 3 plays this week:

Corey Conners. I think he had a good showing at the masters last week. Hopefully no hangover but he checks the most boxes the most frequently. I also think he will be difficult to get to from Morikawa or especially Scheffler
Aaron Rai. He checks the most boxes and fits the course well while potentially going underowned in tournaments. I just hope hes not a Pendrith of this week.
Tommy Fleetwood. The final spot could be multiple names and I just sorta feel like there is a potential path to playing him or Denny McCarthy this week. He just happens to have more leverage and thats what I like.

Last year's optimal

The optimal last year required a 13k Scheffler to be optimal. Only 1 9k and then 4 sub 7600 salaries which is kinda wild. Shooting for 100 pts per golfer this week and roughly 20 birdies (5 per round?).

If this writeup helps you, please support the content any way you can! Its just me doing this for free while I have access to the data I have. Hopefully we get more wins this week! But check back before lock if you can.

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First Look At Odds vs Salary, Situations and Leverage

Numbers are not sharp at this point in the week (Tuesday), but we get a general idea of what is happening with the slate. Scheffler is priced way up there and ownership followed him. At almost 40% expected ownership for the top golfer in the world, a decision will have to be made to either play him + some cheap guys, or find a pivot that essentially could pivot your entire lineup. The 10K range is the direct pivot to Scheffler if you like Aberg, Henley or Conners this week at half the ownership and 3K less in salary.

I can say for certain that the cheap area is filled full of players and therefore we can rest assured that the cheap plays are going to make and break your 6 of 6 this week. Aaron Rai looks like the best of the cheaper range at 8K and Glover beneath him. I highly suggest not going heavy on anyone in the cheap tier if you like money.

Expected Wins vs Actual Wins

Back at this chart again, Morikawa appears to still be trending towards an expected win, but doesnt have one yet. You can chase that win by playing him ever week until he wins, or wait til he is underowned before going after it. He may be 2nd highest owned this week so I'm not sure I will do that just yet. Spaun is actually the next closest overdue a win in this field.

Course Fit (datagolf)

Unlike last week, distance and putting will be much less of a focus than Driving Accuracy and Approach play (links golf). This course averages the 4th lowest driving distance on the tour. Aaron Rai has been one of the more accurate drivers on course, so if his approach play comes together he could be a decent play this week.

SG Last 4 Years

Looking at the past 4 years of strokes gained data at this course, Scottie has dominated and then Cantlay and JT right behind. It appears that roughly 5 birdies a round can be enough to contend here if bogeys are minimized.

Check back before lock for more insights!