PGA Odds, Analysis and Leverage for the Traveler's Championship (no cut) Draftkings GPPs -June 2025

Last week's primary chart was quite fantastic and its a shame we have to follow up by looking at no cut events, which sorta change the game with those who would normally not make the cut being able to pick up a little extra value to those at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Nonetheless lets see how this week shapes up for lineup construction.

Odds vs Situations

This is the first pass chart where odds and ownership is still expected to shift. Infact one trend I've noticed in the past weeks is that people (including myself) make a decision on whether or not to pay up for Scottie, and that shifts the projections. Last week, Scottie was 14k and this week slightly under it after being a little less owned than projected. He is starting less owned than last week, which means, he could be one that gets extra ownership this week, taking away from a Morikawa, who currently shows half the ownership. I also believe that the case in which Scheffler fails is if 2 of the other high priced tier finish in the top 5 or 10 and that simply hasnt happened in a while. Therefore balanced builds will be tough to believe in. The cheap end has a lot of names this week, with Nick Taylor, Ryan Gerard, Davis Thompson and Michael Kim all being present. Mackenzie Hughes is showing as the 2nd most leverage on the chart as well in that space, so that will take some closer looks to pick out 3 names to target.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

This chart actually had 2 names in it where a golfer was rising in expected wins without having actual wins logged this season. Morikawa - whom I've been waiting for all season and now over a win and a half in expectations, and then JJ Spaun, who actually got his win last week. The moment I stop mentioning Morikawa is the tournament he wins so I'm not making that mistake this week. Hes overdue and therefore my first build may simply be Morikawa + Scottie and then 4 names from the cheap end. I hope to do a 3 entry max to get some different looks this week (and who knows, maybe 1 without Scottie).

Core but Leveraged

These 4 names are all guys with a top 10 in the past, yet showing underowned for their odds. Jason Day may look the best for value / price assuming you dont need a ton of birdies here.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Based on this visual this is definitely a course where driving accuracy is king with a lean to approach shots also following too. Maybe a case where good accuracy off the tee will also help the approach shots that follow, so I'd say leaning into those accurate drivers is likely going to be important, especially in the cheap tier. I think the most similar course to this one is sedgefield/Wyndham championship where Webb Simpson has typically done well. Maybe worth a peek to see who has stood out there in the past couple years.

Last 4 Years Strokes Gained

Turns out that Scottie has gained the most strokes at this tourney in the past 4 years so fading him is not really feeling like the right approach this week either. Xander and Rory do have similar numbers to his though. Finau is on the cheaper end with Sung Jae in strokes gained and I'm seeing Jason Day down there again too, although his scoring average is a bit higher.

More to come as time permits so check below this line for updates if you come back this evening!

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Guys who have higher ownership projected than Odds / Fade Candidates for me

Not all chalk is bad. These are not the highest owned plays on the board but they are names who I filtered out due to lack of leverage. In the past 2 weeks, some of the names I put on this list have ended in top of the leaderboard, and so the ideal path is to figure out whether there is a reason to fade theme or a pivot to make in the same price range. Hovland is the most risky to fade of the list as hes the least negatively leveraged. Harman has great history here as well.

Detailed Scatterplot

I was looking for pivots based on the guys that I am pivoting away from but ran out of time earlier. Hovland appears to have one to Aberg if paying up. However I decided I would just look at top owned plays and see who is ideal for a pivot below:

From what I am seeing - really 2 names have several pivots: Cam Young on the cheap end at roughly 16% ownership projected, and on the other side of this, Aberg could be the pivot to up to 3 different names on the board. Morikawa is the only one of value by being above that trend line. Therefore I am just gonna take a stand and not play any Cam Young, but will play some Aberg below the line.

Last Year's Optimal/Results

Welp last year Scottie destroyed this course and put up 149.5 DKP here in his win. Infact every golfer put up at least 100 pts in the optimal with 7 guys making it from the 7K range. I dont think I've ever seen that before. It may be best to look for ceilings this week if using an optimizer, as it appears that birdies will be easy for some of these guys.

Salary Range Pivots

10k+

Theres only one real pivot IMO off Scottie this week and that is a Morikawa lineup. However I dont see a reason to go here a ton when Scotte just won here last year. Maybe you can play them both though.

9K

This range is just as popular as the 10K range. Cantlay has the highest odds but Hovland has the highest ownership in this range, which really makes me OK to fade him. Infact he projects the lowest ceiling of the range for me as well so that seems like a chance worth taking (fade to 0%).

8K

Fleetwood broke my top lineups last week and yet he comes in with the highest odds and ownership this week. I dont quite understand why as there are several other playable names in this range. Note that Hideki showed up on my injury report so thats why his odds are the lowest.

7K

Pretty much the top odds in the 7k range are all playable, although Jason Day is one of my favorite ideas for a lineup. His issue is he may not be fully healthy which he does WD - so proceed with caution. Cam Young is the highest here and I am also getting 0% myself.

6K

The top 3 of the 6K range are the cheaper guys at the end of the scatterplot. The top ceiling is Max Greyserman but he also feels like a boom or bust play. In the cheap spaces I try not to get too fancy.

Hope that helps build some lineups this week. Its a no cut event so I dont put a ton of faith in things but will be playing for wins regardless. Good luck!