UFC 320 - Pereira vs Ankalaev 2 2025 Odds Leverage and Analysis for Draftkings GPPs

With it being a PPV I figure I would do an actual blog post to walk down the slate today. I usually write this as I look at my data points for the first time so you get the raw insight that I see.

Fight and Fighter Finder

I like to start with the chart on the right each week to get an idea of what my lineup might consist of. I personally prefer to get to as many fights on the main card as possible. It keeps me in the game longer and it allows me to make fun of everyone else that plays the early busts. The comfort level comes from the left chart that measures odds of a finish in that fight. I read it left to right and see that fights 6,3,9,5,10 and then the main event all have the better odds, which means 1,3,5,6 are playable for sure. I may still play a fight without finish odds if takedowns and volume are expected to bring value. Those fights I also look for underdogs out of habit as they are usually easier to bring value. Note the negative odds mean that the fight is more likely to win by decision than a finish.

Odds vs Optimal

I circled the fighters that stand out to me as having high finish odds today as potential core plays that I may take into my lineups. Interestingly it would seem that Ankalaev is more likely to win by decision as Pereira is more likely to win by a finish if he is to win this. Also noting that Soriano has the highest upside on the chart.

Variance

Speaking of Soriano, the fighter with the most variance on the card is going to be him (top down). That means he and the fighters below have the most boom and bust potential on the surface. One punch to win or one punch to be flatlined. I am unsure if he makes my top lineup build as a result of that. He faces Nikolay Veretennikov so if you think he gets KO'ed you could potentially take that route. Ive seen DQs also impact that fighter as well so keep in mind its high risk high reward as shown in his upside projection. Of that group, I believe he is the highest ownership expectation so I am leaning on fading in my initial build.

Size Mismatches

These are the 4 fights that show a decent reach advantage to the other fighter, which means someones face is likely to get touched more often, with less effort than the other. The counter to getting your face punched is to go for takedowns so I do look at the takedown defense to see if the advantage is in both places. Ankalaev sucks at takedown accuracy (22%) so I dont think thats his game plan today. Roundtree is worse at 0%. Santos has a little chance with his 39% accuracy in takedowns vs 0% takedown defense JooSang), and Gutierrez has 25% accuracy vs 80% takedown defense so I dont think it will help 3 of these guys.

Live Dogs

Got 3 this week. Pereira and Roundtree would be my favs of the 3 to upset.

Odds vs Salary

I am getting a look at the fighter odds vs salary to get an idea of who might just pop for value. Maybe Brogan Walker enters the field of play on the cheap end. Gautier seems above the field but also the most expensive, making him difficult but intriguing.

Optimal Contenders

These are my contenders for the optimal lineup this week. I am likely to roster 4 of these guys in any entry I make. Fight 3 has fighters on both sides of the fense so I will play one or the other from that fight. Merab might be the chalk of the card. 651.40 is the projected score you will need to compete for wins today.

My optimal lineup

This is what my tools built for me today. I will run it in cash just to watch what happens. (note the ceiling is incorrect in this tool but i haven't had a chance to fix that yet). Maybe something to build a core off of but I always recommend making at least 2 changes to an optimal lineup that is generated from projections.

GPP Play Ranking

This is experimental but me ranking each play for tournaments from top to bottom. Will see how it does.

Potential Lineup Stacks

No one really talks about UFC stacks in this sense but that means opportunity imo. These 3 combinations are mentioned as potential paths to lineup construction, based on how the optimizer generated high scoring lineups for me. If you see one of these paths that make more sense than the other, give it a whirl - i know I will.

updated:

Down to these two stacks after making some adjustments. Just not feeling Brogan Walker.

Congrats if you made it to the end. If you found value in reading this post, consider giving a like to the thread that brought you here. Good luck to those playing!