UFC Fight Night Odds and Thoughts for July 12 2025

Just putting it in a page for readability. Note that the odds site I normally use is down so I had to type a lotta stuff in by hand. Hopefully no mistakes!

Violence Ranks

I use this to determine which fights (1 is the main event, 12 is first fight of the night) to estimate which fights I am most likely to prioritize for violence. The main event seems likely to end early, followed by fight 5 and 6, while fights 7 and 9 likely end with a hug.

Upside vs Optimal

The fight number is listed here to determine which fighters are in those fights, as well as the measurable upside. I dont have any stats showing on Teixeira but he looks like an overwhelming favorite to win by finish per Vegas odds. He is likely the chalk play of the slate as well, over 50% owned (guessing). Kline and Mike Davis are otherwise interesting for those we can measure. I think Davis, Tafa and Bonfim stick out the most to me. Petrino also looking like he wins early too.

Odds vs Salary

If I were to guess at lowest overall ownership, itd be Austin Lane who is projected to be finished at an extremely high percentage. If hes not though, that would be interesting. Hes not on my live dogs list though. For favorites, maybe Mike Davis is lower owned than the others? His price makes things difficult when thinking about value.

Live Dogs

I have 3 this week and 2 are lacking data points but Tokkos is quite interesting with those finish odds vs Tafa in fight 5.

Variance!

These are the top 5 names in variance meaning they will either win big or get one punched and piss you off. For example, Tafa is showing 2nd most variance, and seeing him face Tokkos makes me slightly interested in taking that chance in a few lineups. Kline and Davis have such high win odds that I am more likely staying away from them if they are high owned.

Size Mismatches

I usually start caring when there is a 4 inch difference in height or reach as I feel like that makes punching difficult when you cant reach their face before they reach yours. Also noting that Austen Lane is listed like 40 lbs heavier than Petrino, so may need to check the weigh in on that.

Good luck!