UFC Odds and Analysis - Quick Notes for tonights Fight Night 257 Aug 2025

dfsedric
2 hours ago
3 min read

This is going to be quick and painful so appologies in advance. Card starts in like 6 hours and I was working on creating some UFC sims but may or may not be able to validate data that comes with that. Primarily sticking with the system that helped me get 1st in a single entry gpp last week so lets go.

Odds vs Salary

Quickly peeking at where the odds are on this card at least. Zhang is in the main event with the best looking odds overall while Sergei is looking like 2nd best value , and then the lights go a bit dim. There is one fighter who has a green leverage dot because he is priced the highest but slightly dipping below the value trend line. Thats a decision point if you wanna do that, but you likely skip out on others in the section. Cheap end Johnny Walker is out there I suppose too if you think he takes it to decision or wins against the top odds.

UnderOwned Finishing Odds

I'mma be honest and tell you that I recognize 4-5 names on this card. Two of these guys got 1 name total, while I estimate the projections on most of these dudes without numbers to get something. That can mess with everything else if done incorrectly but from what I can see, Sterling has the potential to be the top chalk and top upside. I circled the other 5 peeps that have potential to finish their fights. The guy at the bottom without an upside.. well that is a tough one but he has high odds so may just play the odds.

Violence Finder

Main event looks pretty good. One thing I also like to do is stack the main card - top 6 fights as much as possible with fighters. Thats what I did last week and got 1st with an L on my card. Likely to do it again based on this view. Fight 10 is early so may take a shot there.

This will help link the names to the numbers from the fight. Also adding in volume, so Sergei's fight looks pretty strong for points.

Contenders for Optimal Value Wise

These names have value to potentially boost your lineups up. edit: Zhang is here, but just another fighter with missing data so I updated it. Lets check the live dogs. Shooting for 640 pts this week unless someone goes berserk like Khamzat did.

Live Dog

Only one listed and hes in the first fight of the night. Otherwise odds arent going to help us much this time. I show Walker and Borjas as higher ownership expectations than him so maybe worth a flier.