UFC Vegas 108 - DFS Odds and Leverage and Some Analysis - Fight Night Taira vs Park August 2025

I've had a rough stretch of getting data that I could use to bring insights to the world for draftkings. Whether its my optimizer (fantasycruncher), the original odds site I used (bestfightodds) or other sports sites, data is becoming extremely difficult to pull and somewhat a burden against my schedule. Nonetheless this morning, I have what I need to produce some insights and so I will take advantage. I hope you do too!

Violence vs Fight

Only getting a high level view from left to right, as to which fights are likely to do something for finish vs a handshake at the end. The main event leans finish as does fight 8 and 6, while the first fights on the card expect to end in a decision along with fight 4.

Optimal vs Upside

This is where I usually begin. I see Rinya has the most upside, but also not expected to finish her fight. Maybe she gets there in volume? Just something to consider. As far as candidate who stand out to me, Vieira could be under-owned so that is likely a high exposure ahead for me. If there is a fighter that I might consider a fade for? It could be Rodriguez and Estevam possibly who I fade out (maybe).

Odds vs Salary

Just peeking at where the value is for the odds, Park seems to be a value on the cheap end but Taira is too on the expensive end. There are definitely some clusters of fighters this week. Not sure I see any reason to get too cheap with the lowest end yet. Will take a peak at live dogs to be sure.

Size Mismatches

3 fighters stand out as having advantages in reach: Taira, Duncan, and Magny. Looking at the scatter plot, Duncan could be of value for the price as well so that makes another piece I definitely like.

Live Dogs

I have 3 this week. Duncan, Park, and Klein. I dont know how I feel about Klein or Park tbh but they are going to be in the field for me. Duncan I am going to take a bigger shot with personally.

Variance

If youre a GPP player, you must embrace some variance but also if you are a DFS player, you must avoid bad variance if you consider yourself top notch. These 4 fighters have the most variance on the slate. That means they are likely to either blow up or get blown up. If you can project the ownership, the highest owned are the ones I tend to fade the most often, but unfortunately I do not have access to real projections in UFC. If I were to guess, maybe Rinya is the highest owned considering I have Rinya as the highest upside, so keep in mind that variance could be sink or swim on a 4 fight sample size.

Winning Score Predictions

I think your lineup needs to shoot for at least 621.42 points this week. These players all are contenders to help you get there. Duncan I'm seeing across the board for me so I'm locked in. The others = well lets see what we can build.

If this post helps you build a lineup, consider liking the source that got you there. And let me hear it if you win some money.