US Open - PGA DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - 2025

Last week was one of the most bizarre showings of how leverage can go the opposite direction, as I saw some of the most negatively leveraged plays go 1st, 2nd and 4th in the golf tournament. However I am hoping that the positive leverage wins this week for some outright wins.

Updated! 6/12 - new additions at the bottom.

Situations and Odds vs Salary

There are roughly 156ish golfers in the field, and we really need to eliminate 150 of them as we head towards the optimal. I like to start by filtering out the golfers who are not showing signs of being on the leverage side ^ thus what we see in the scatterplot. Those names have decent odds for their ownership, and the higher up, the higher your odds of success. Scottie has just killed it all year around so there's no surprise he has the highest odds every tournament. However the main contender for his space is Bryson DeChambeau. I fully expect his ownership to climb while Scheffler's goes down at least a lil bit, as Scheffler is anything but a lock to be optimal at that price. On the cheapest end, Carlos Ortiz is the last name that made the chart, although there are 5K priced players in this slate too, and making the cut might be all you need from them to reach value. Good luck there though as most Scheffler lineups are likely to do that.

One name showed up on this list as being core, but leveraged. That is because most golfers do not have history playing this course, but Shane Lowry has played it before which is a qualifier for this table. At 7800 and estimated 13% ownership, I have to think he may go in my initial lineup.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This is the type of data other sites use to determine who they play, and we need to keep it in mind as well, yet not rely only on it when choosing. All majors actually shape up like this, where you essentially have to be good in all areas. In this case, driving is showing to be very important with the edge on accuracy. I think most of us saw them twitter videos of the hand mowing crew, cutting the rough. Was it all for social media clicks? maybe.. but names like Morikawa stick out as a result.

Golfer Season Long Stats (Off the Tee)

Bryson has this field in a chokehold in this stat this year. Next closest is Rahm, who happens to be 1st in GIR. Ultimately the top_10 percentage should take in consideration all of their stats and history and so I am likely to pay attention to that in this case and hope that most of them pop here, where Fleetwood and Morikawa and Niemann all start to show up in the next tier.

Expected Wins vs Actual Wins

Speaking of Morikawa, he is still the 'next player up that is overdue a win. Scheffler and Niemann and Rory have won more than they should have this season already, but that is also a sign of a weaker field than simply domination otherwise.

Recent Form - Last 4 Weeks

I know the column says 5, but it is actually just 4 weeks worth of data here. There are a few names (Ortiz, Koivun, Gotterup that have played well in their recent tournaments. As we know, each course is different and so it will be worth circling back to see if any of them match the course fits. Koivun has the most leverage of the 3 but I'm not sure what tour he plays on.

Under Owned but Optimal Leverage Value Plays

Every week I circle the names that appear to provide some value with regards to odds and ownership. This names do shift so I intend to update this chart closer to lock, but as of now, there is a strong lean towards balance over stars and scrubs.

Updated:

I'm likely to keep playing Ortiz from the abov but this is how the updated selections have shifted. Robert Mac is the cheapest name on this view but most names stayed the same.

Salary Range 10K+

These guys are priced this way for a reason. All 5 are capable of a win, with odds being on Scheffler to do that based on his recent game. I made a business decision not to play him at that price on this course, but I don't blame you if you do. Then Bryson and Rahm have the best next odds but Rahm being half the ownership of Scheffler is the actual pivot point if his ownership remains half of Scheffler's (although I suspect Bryson to balloon up a lil bit). I also mentioned already that Xander plays the US Open better than anyone else over the past 4 years in terms of strokes gained.

9K

Morikawa has somewhat plagued my charts with his existence this year as he is overdue a win, but isn't winning as I chase the play. He is the top odds in this 9k range which is live for me except Aberg, who I simply never play. However he projects the most ownership in the 9K range when others are playable. If super bold, starting a lineup in the 9K range will give quite a bit more leverage and balance away from the cheap guys.

8K

I am surprised that the top prices were so limited this week that less than 5% exist in each range. The top odds here is Niemann and so is his ownership. Hovland and Koepka are 2 guys who are capable but rarely played by me either way. They also have the lower odds anyways in this range so I wont miss them.

7K

This is where things get interesting. This is the first time in which the 7K range has been so limited in selected plays. I think the pivot points of the contest could be here as expensive plays will force you here and lower. I am likely going to prioritize these 3 7K guys in my lineups. Lowry was the name that popped up earlier for core but leveraged.

6K

The 6K range became the old 7K range as there are more options here this week than usual, which suggests that a top tier play is feasible, especially if bypassing some other ranges. Rob Mac and Ortiz are the names I mentioned earlier but these others are in the mix for me as well. Harris English is the highest owned in this range from projections while Rob might be his pivot point if he fails.

5K

Yea, I'm trying to avoid the 5K range because these are such low odds on everyone that you are throwing darts to make the cut. In a low upside range, it is still possible to make it work if they reach value but I dont want to risk it. McCarty is highest odds of making the cut etc, while Victor Perez has the highest upside. At least none project over 5% ownership.

Good luck!